Inflation

Yesterday, European stock markets moved substantially higher and brent crude fell below $100/bbl. Since then, it has popped back up, but it is still quite a bit lower than Monday's peak. Crude prices topped out after the US announced it…
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Firstly, let's get this out of the way: the Fed is going to raise rates at the conclusion of their two-day meeting tomorrow. 98.3% of experts agree that the FOMC will decide to raise rates by 25bps. The other 1.7% think it will be 50bps.…
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USDJPY rises as BOJ stays dovish The Japanese yen softens as global uncertainty takes a toll on its economy. Japan’s high dependency on energy and raw material imports means that surging prices could hurt the economy. The…
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Last night, Goldman Sachs issued a note to clients, downgrading their forecast for the US GDP growth to 2.9% from 3.1% prior. However, that wasn't the headline that got most of the attention from the press. Specifically, it was the…
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Up until about two weeks ago, there was a pretty strong consensus that the ECB would take the first step towards monetary policy normalization at tomorrow's meeting. That's when the covid asset-buying program (PEPP) would run out. There…
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While everyone has been focused on the horrors of the war in Ukraine, the potential economic fallout has been a little ignored. There have been some passing mentions of the wheat prices, but it still appears to be something only niche…
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Overall, there is a correlation between the stock market and currency markets. Usually, when a country's stock market increases, its currency decreases, and vice versa. But we are in extraordinary times. And there are some worrying signs…
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EURUSD falls as the prospect of rate hike fades The euro tumbles as traders cut their ECB rate hike wager. A dovish statement from the central bank is expected this week as the war at the gate of the eurozone intensifies. Surging…
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Since the beginning of February, the spot price of gold has been moving higher. Generally, when the expectation is for interest rates to go up, the price of gold drifts down. But, the concern over a potential invasion of Ukraine by…
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Last month's NFP figures took everyone by surprise, coming in well above even the most optimistic expectations. It was one of many factors contributing to speculations that the Fed would become increasingly hawkish. That, in turn, helped…
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