Fundamental Analysis

The headline number of job gains so far this year has left policymakers quite happy. But a look under the surface shows some troubling signs. And they are expected to be exacerbated by the data forecast for tomorrow. In the context of…
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Ahead of tomorrow's BOE interest rate decision, a somewhat unique and interesting situation has cropped up. Most relevant for us traders is that it could mean there will be a strong reaction in the pound no matter what the BOE does.…
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So far this week, safe-haven flows have been the theme of the markets. The yen strengthened substantially, and the Nikkei fell. US stocks were down on the first day of trading. Of course there are other factors affecting market sentiment,…
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Last Friday, Switzerland's KOF leading indicator came in well below expectations. To make matters worse, the prior month was revised lower. With the world talking about both recession and facing massive inflation, it would appear the Swiss…
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Overnight, reports surfaced that the Chinese government was "backing away" from its growth target for this year. The media pointed to a recent Communist Party planning meeting in which the target wasn't mentioned. Remember that the NPC…
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The ECB raised rates more than the market was expecting, and won't be meeting again until September. But that doesn't mean we won't get pivotal data in the meantime. It's just that the market is more likely to react to the economic…
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Tomorrow the US reports the first look at its Q2 GDP figures. There is already controversy even before the number is known. First, let's remember that we'll get the final number several weeks later. Following there can be some adjustments…
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Since the last Fed meeting, there have been some pretty wide variations on expectations. Initially, it was thought that the Fed's latest 75bps hike was a one-off. Then inflation data came out, and that changed the calculus, with a bunch of…
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Inflation figures in Australia tend to have a somewhat outside impact. The country is somewhat unique in only reporting CPI changes once a quarter. Normally, when there isn't much fluctuation in inflation. That isn't much of a problem, but…
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Banks are the largest players in the Forex sphere, so it's logical that issues among banks could have repercussions among currencies. Generally, forex traders don't care about how profitable major global banks are. But now there is…
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