Ashraf Laidi, Author at Orbex Forex Trading Blog

Ashraf Laidi is an independent strategist and trader, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". His insights on currencies and commodities appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Bloomberg TV, and BBC.


April and Q2 Seasonals

March was a roller-coaster month for the markets. Sentiment and themes flipped repeatedly, especially with flows dominating the final days of the month as the end of quarter loomed. The British pound was the top performer of the month, while the Swiss franc and Australian dollar lagged. In the quarter, the Japanese yen led the way, while the ...

2018-04-10 Read more

Four Points on the Fed

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps in today’s meeting. Markets are fixated on whether the central forecasts of FOMC members will shift towards signalling 4 rate hikes this year from the current forecast of three rate hikes. Their views on growth and inflation will also be of relevance. 3 or 4? Those wh...

2018-03-28 Read more

Dow’s Rare Quarterly Doji

The quarterly price candle on the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is looking like a long-legged doji, one of the most striking signs of reversal in Japanese candlestick analysis. The fact that such rare candle formation is shaping up on the quarterly chart (not a daily or weekly) implies further downside in the subsequent three-six months, ...

2018-03-23 Read more

Trump Trade War

Five Fronts in the Trade War The Donald Trump Trade War began as the president signed a proclamation to place tariffs on steel and aluminum on Thursday in the first concrete step in his quest to reduce the bulging US trade deficit. The resulting steps as well as fallout will be a driving force for markets in the weeks/months ahead. Major d...

2018-03-23 Read more

Trump’s Latest Gift for USD Bears

Trump finally did it. Yesterday’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% tariffs on imported aluminum is an outright trade war. Regardless of whether protectionism has been the cornerstone of Trump’s campaign promises, once it is announced markets react. As Trump was backing protectionism in Thursday’s press conference, Fed Cha...

2018-03-23 Read more

Fed Minutes Drive Whipsaws

What happened in the two hours following the release of the January Federal Reserve meeting minutes?  A 1.8% fall in equity indices, accompanied by a rapid jump in bond yields and a broad recovery in the US dollar. The Dow Jones Industrials Average made a 430-pt turnaround in 90 minutes (from 266 pts intraday rally to closing 166 pts in the red)...

2018-03-23 Read more

How High for the Yen

USDJPY breaks down to its lowest level in 15 months, falling under 107 to test the all-important trendline support -- extending from summer 2016. Is the yen too high for Japan’s struggling economy? Will the Bank of Japan intervene and try to slow the pace of the yen’s strength? Will it work?   Unsustainable Purchases Despite having wea...

2018-03-20 Read more

Stocks Threatened by Bonds

In last week’s piece, I asked if rising bond yields could threaten gold prices. Today’s question asks whether the rise in bond yields will endanger equity indices. As I write this, US equity indices are finally posting declines of more than 5-7% from their peaks, something not seen since autumn 2015 when equity markets feared uncertainty ahead o...

2018-03-20 Read more

Can Yields Stop Gold?

In my article from 4 months ago about gold versus bond yields, I concluded that gold would reach $1330-1350 from the $1280 level at the time of writing the analysis. So where do we go from here?   The Real Deal As bond prices fall and their yields surge to the highest in over four years, there may be a risk that the advance in yields c...

2018-02-07 Read more

America First, Dollar Last – Let the Trade Wars Commence

Four days after the US government was shut down due to immigration-driven disagreement over extending Federal funding, the US dollar sustained a major blow resulting from protectionist remarks by US Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.   Shutdown & Protectionism Resurfacing political dissent is nothing new....

2018-03-20 Read more

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