Ashraf Laidi is an independent strategist and trader, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". His insights on currencies and commodities appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Bloomberg TV, and BBC.


7 Reasons Not to Panic over the Italian Government

Italy will present a new government on Friday based on an unlikely marriage between the left-wing protest 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League. It’s a populist union that found common ground on immigration, taxes and the social safety net. After 3 months of unproductive negotiations, and rejected political appointments, they finally have a ...

2018-06-01 Read more

3 Points on Swiss Franc Strength

The recent strength in the Swiss franc has extended to the point of gaining versus all major currencies, including the US dollar over the past 2 weeks. Not coincidentally, the start of this period coincided with the breakout in the drama revolving Italian politics. But there are other factors enforcing franc strength. Will the currency require c...

2018-05-24 Read more

Unstoppable Canadian dollar

Despite all the attention commanded by the US dollar, its Canadian counterpart remains the strongest performing currency since the start of the month and the beginning of the quarter. Negotiations to save the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have reached an impasse with no meetings scheduled among the top leaders ahead of month-end. Y...

2018-05-17 Read more

Inside Gold-USD Relationship

As the US dollar rally enters its 4th consecutive week – the longest series of uninterrupted advances since September – the following question needs to be asked? Can the strengthening of the USD continue without any technical breakdown in gold? Or is gold’s stabilisation a red flag for USD bulls? Lets look into the Gold-USD relationship. Here...

2018-05-09 Read more

USD Implications of Fed’s Symmetric Objective

In Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement, the US central bank indicated that: “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term”. The reference to symmetric objective means the US central bank anticipates inflation to reach the 2.0% target and is willing to allow i...

2018-05-10 Read more

April ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Preview – No changes expected

In the April ECB monetary policy meeting preview we look at how the European Central Bank will be holding its monthly monetary policy meeting this week on Thursday. No changes are expected to the interest rates or the central bank's QE purchases at this week's meeting. Investors will be clued into the message from the ECB and also the press c...

2018-04-25 Read more

Gold Nearing Breakout

Most gold bulls have been holding on to long positions for months, if not years anticipating the next big breakout.  It was almost one year ago when gold made a successful break above the six-year trendline resistance, extending from the $1921 high.  But how long must we wait for a clear break above $1400? What we already know Gold attempted a...

2018-04-25 Read more

Carney Cuts Cable

The pound sustains its biggest weekly decline in over four months after the Bank of England governor sparked a rethink of interest rate hike expectations for next month’s meeting. Is the BoE the latest central bank to panic over the rapid appreciation in its currency, or is there more to Carney’s comments? In an interview yesterday with the B...

2018-04-24 Read more

CAD: Expectations Vs Reality

You must be wondering why I keep writing about the Canadian dollar. My first article for this column was on September 13, followed by October 11 and January 17. Over the last 12 months, the Canadian dollar has risen 8% against the US dollar. It is the strongest currency among the G10 currencies over the last 4 weeks. So, what happened to the cur...

2018-04-24 Read more

April and Q2 Seasonals

March was a roller-coaster month for the markets. Sentiment and themes flipped repeatedly, especially with flows dominating the final days of the month as the end of quarter loomed. The British pound was the top performer of the month, while the Swiss franc and Australian dollar lagged. In the quarter, the Japanese yen led the way, while the ...

2018-05-09 Read more

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