Fundamental Analysis

Economists are unanimous in expecting that the BOJ will keep rates unchanged at the end of its meeting on Friday. Futures markets agree. But some complications could move the USDJPY in the aftermath of the meeting. The focus for the…
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Markets and economists are unanimous in expecting that the BOE will hold rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting. But that doesn't mean cable will sail through the event unscathed. Traders will be looking for clues on when the next rate cut…
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There is an overwhelming consensus among futures markets and economists that the Fed will cut rates at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The vast majority are betting on 25 bps of easing, with the disagreement being from those…
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The consensus for the moment is that the BOC will cut interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, just hours before the Fed is projected to do the same. However, that consensus is a bit shaky, given uncertainty around tariffs and trade…
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Economists have been noting with some concern a global trend of rising long-term bond yields. Interest rates are one of the key drivers for currency movements, so it's something forex traders should take note of. Long-term yields function…
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After a couple of weeks of political turmoil in the UK, traders can now turn to some hard data. Friday's release of the monthly GDP could be a crucial piece for figuring out where cable will be headed in the medium term. All eyes are on the…
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There is a solid consensus that the ECB will hold rates unchanged at the end of its policy meeting on Thursday, 11 September. Inflation is almost exactly on target, and the Euroarea economy is projected to grow steadily. But uncertainty…
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After last week's disappointing jobs numbers from the US, the market has gone ahead and priced in a lot more easing from the Fed. But, that assumes that inflation will be in line with expectations. A surprise in the upcoming US CPI and even…
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Political developments around the world are converging this week, affecting the outlook of several currencies. The Prime Minister of Japan resigned over the weekend, a cabinet reshuffle took place in the UK, and France's Prime Minister…
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China will report its August trade balance on Monday, with markets closely scrutinising the data for insight into the trade war and whether Beijing will step up stimulus measures. The data is particularly important to currencies from…
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