Fundamental Analysis

This week sees the first release of official major US data since the shutdown, with markets keen to get an update on the state of the American economy. The immediate effect on the markets might be somewhat blunted, considering how soon…
Read More

Over the past couple of months, senior ECB officials have repeatedly stated that inflation and interest rates are in the right place. But nothing is permanent in the economy, and it's only a matter of time before the situation changes.…
Read More

Cable has been rising since its November lows amid a combination of factors. For one, the uncertainty around the Autumn Budget has largely been resolved. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears at least for now to have found the sweet spot of…
Read More

The BOC is widely expected to keep rates unchanged ahead of the FOMC's meeting on Wednesday. This is somewhat unusual, as the two central banks often move in tandem, given the interconnectivity between the two economies. The shift in the…
Read More

The dollar has been declining through most of this month ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The expectation is that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 bps, matching its prediction from back in September. Markets have been interpreting…
Read More

The Aussie has been gaining some strength in the days ahead of the RBA rate decision, thanks to improving commodity prices. The AUDUSD has also benefited from a weaker dollar ahead of the Fed. The upcoming central bank meetings could…
Read More

China will report its trade balance early on Monday, with markets looking at the data for indications about the health of the global economy. Traders have largely moved on from the tariff narrative and are adapting to the "new normal" as…
Read More

More economic data delayed by the US government shutdown is now being released, and Friday sees the release of the US PCE price index. On the one hand, it's relatively outdated information from September. On the other hand, it's the Fed's…
Read More

Precious metals are on the rise again, with gold breaking above $4,200 and silver scoring a new all-time high. The moves have generated investor interest amid the market's unusual dynamics. As a safe-haven, the rise in bullion can prompt…
Read More

The yen has been fluctuating widely recently, amid significant shifts in expectations for the BOJ. Markets are concerned about a potential disconnect between monetary policy and the more aggressive stimulus stance from the new Prime…
Read More