Fundamental Analysis

The current US government shutdown has become the longest in history. One would think that a serious matter, such as Congress being unable to agree on how to fund the government, would negatively affect US assets. Yet US stocks have…
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There is a unanimous consensus among economists that the BOE will keep rates unchanged at Thursday's monetary policy decision. What could shake up markets is if the vote split and minutes of the meeting change expectations for the future…
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The US government shutdown continues, and will become the longest in history if a deal isn't struck before Wednesday. That means several key data releases won't happen as scheduled, including the NFP that was due on Friday. With the Fed…
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The RBA rate decision on Tuesday offers an opportunity to shake up the markets. There is a pretty strong consensus that has led the market to price in a specific outcome. However, there are reasons to believe that the RBA could take an…
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The story through the first half of the year was "sell the dollar". The greenback lost over 10% of its value in less than six months, one of the steepest declines of the new century. The main beneficiary of those losses was,…
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Markets are optimistic about China going into the latter half of the week. There is some key data scheduled, which is anticipated to be positive. But the center of attention is the expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and…
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The EURUSD has largely been trending sideways over the last couple of months, clearly looking for a catalyst to break the mould. Rate decisions are often big events that can change a currency's direction, and the ECB meeting right after the…
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Markets are convinced that the Fed will cut rates at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Market volatility could be caused by surprises in the accompanying statement or in Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference. The market is…
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The consensus among economists is that the BOJ will debate when to raise rates, but won't actually hike at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Although inflation remains elevated, analysts believe that the fiscal and political…
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The BOC will hold its October policy meeting on Wednesday and announce its decision ahead of the FOMC meeting. The consensus is for another 25 bps rate cut. However, expectations about what the BOC will do have fluctuated, particularly…
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