Fundamental Analysis

Markets seemed to take with cautious optimism the announcement on Thursday that the US and the UK had reached a deal on trade. It's perhaps best described as a framework agreement, as the 10% blanket tariffs will remain in place pending…
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There is considerable investor interest in the release of China's trade balance on Friday. It will cover the period right after the Trump Administration ratcheted up tariffs to as high as 245% on some products. Of course trade has already…
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The markets are pricing in a 107% chance that the BOE will ease at the next meeting, as a sign of just how dovish expectations are for Thursday's meeting. That means that as far as traders are concerned, the 25 bps cut is a done deal, and…
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The market and economists are pretty much unanimous in expecting the Fed to hold rates unchanged in the upcoming FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. That had been the forecast for quite a while. The big change, however, happened with the…
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Crude prices resumed their downward trend on Monday, hitting lows not seen since April 8th in the middle of the post-tariff market selloff. If it were to close below $60/bbl, that would be the lowest since early 2021 in the middle of the…
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The narrative in forex for months now has been that the dollar index is losing strength. But, over the last week or so, it has seen a rebound. It's still off 10% from the highs of the year, but trending upward from a bottom hit back on the…
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Friday sees one of the most important data points of the month, but some traders are thinking the market could overlook the data. Wednesday saw key US figures such as GDP and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation come out. But the market…
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The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged when it finishes its meeting on Thursday. Usually, the focus is on what Governor Kazuo Ueda has to say in the post-rate decision press conference. That is an opportunity to provide some…
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The Euro is set to be rocked this week with two major data releases that typically shake up the markets. Both US and EU GDP figures are coming out on the same day, which could lead to some market readjustment for the EURUSD. Euro Area flash…
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