Fundamental Analysis

There is a solid consensus that the ECB will hold rates unchanged at the end of its policy meeting on Thursday, 11 September. Inflation is almost exactly on target, and the Euroarea economy is projected to grow steadily. But uncertainty…
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After last week's disappointing jobs numbers from the US, the market has gone ahead and priced in a lot more easing from the Fed. But, that assumes that inflation will be in line with expectations. A surprise in the upcoming US CPI and even…
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Political developments around the world are converging this week, affecting the outlook of several currencies. The Prime Minister of Japan resigned over the weekend, a cabinet reshuffle took place in the UK, and France's Prime Minister…
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China will report its August trade balance on Monday, with markets closely scrutinising the data for insight into the trade war and whether Beijing will step up stimulus measures. The data is particularly important to currencies from…
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All eyes are on Friday's release of the US NFP for August, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's signal of concern over labour market weakness. July's surprisingly weak jobs numbers were the catalyst for the market to price in a rate cut at…
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The Pound (GBP) had a rough start to the week amid political developments in London. Sterling fell 1%, the largest decline since April. Meanwhile, long-term gilt yields rose to the highest they've been in 27 years. Higher, even, than during…
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Gold prices rose to an all-time high on Monday, despite US markets being closed. The yellow metal has risen rapidly over the last week and a half, pushing the daily RSI into overbought territory. Monday's trading also failed to close above…
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Last week, European markets were under pressure despite generally positive global news. The potential for a political crisis in Europe due to the situation in France weighed on risk appetite. While the stock market underperformed, it raises…
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Markets have been in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of Friday's US July PCE price index data. That's because it's the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, which could help clarify some of the conflicting data that has emerged recently.…
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Inflation in the Euro Area is mainly within the ECB's target, and the economy is growing modestly. That's usually the recipe for the central bank to sit back and refrain from making any monetary policy changes. That seems to be the attitude…
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