Fundamental Analysis

Markets are settling into the extended year-end holidays, with slow news and low trading volumes, and one major data release this week that could substantially shake things up. Tuesday sees the release of additional data delayed by the US…
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As the trading year winds down ahead of the Christmas holiday season, it's worth taking a moment to reflect on what drove the markets over the last twelve months to get a baseline for what to expect in the year ahead. One aspect to consider…
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It looks like the BOJ is finally going to go through with a rate hike at Friday's meeting. The last time Japan's central bank raised rates was in January, and inflation has remained well above target. Officials have sought to curb consumer…
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The Euro has generally appreciated over the last week as traders become more convinced that the next move from the ECB will be a hike. The question is whether that will be signaled at the upcoming meeting. Markets and economists are…
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The consensus among economists is unanimous that the BOE will cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday. But analysts expect the vote split to be razor-thin, meaning that markets will likely react to the outlook. Economists and the market…
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This week sees the first release of official major US data since the shutdown, with markets keen to get an update on the state of the American economy. The immediate effect on the markets might be somewhat blunted, considering how soon…
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Over the past couple of months, senior ECB officials have repeatedly stated that inflation and interest rates are in the right place. But nothing is permanent in the economy, and it's only a matter of time before the situation changes.…
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Cable has been rising since its November lows amid a combination of factors. For one, the uncertainty around the Autumn Budget has largely been resolved. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears at least for now to have found the sweet spot of…
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The BOC is widely expected to keep rates unchanged ahead of the FOMC's meeting on Wednesday. This is somewhat unusual, as the two central banks often move in tandem, given the interconnectivity between the two economies. The shift in the…
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The dollar has been declining through most of this month ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The expectation is that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 bps, matching its prediction from back in September. Markets have been interpreting…
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