fx cot update

EURUSD Non-Commercials reduced their net long positions in the Euro last week selling 17k contracts to take the total position to 93k contracts. EUR upside positioning has now been reduced by around a third over the last month as traders react to the shifting environment in the Eurozone. A more cautious and dovish tone from the ECB, acknowl...

2018-06-04 James Harte Read more

Despite all the attention commanded by the US dollar, its Canadian counterpart remains the strongest performing currency since the start of the month and the beginning of the quarter. Negotiations to save the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have reached an impasse with no meetings scheduled among the top leaders ahead of month-end. Y...

2018-05-17 Ashraf Laidi Read more
US Treasury Report adds India to watch list

The semi-annual currency report was released by the U.S. Department of Treasury last week. The report, published under the Trump administration refrained from naming any of the trading partners as currency manipulators but maintained pressure on China. The report criticized China for its "non-market direction" and warned of the global risks. ...

2018-04-19 John Benjamin Read more
US China Trade War

Global risk sentiment remains on shaky ground this week as the US China trade war continues to intensify. Following the US President’s announcement of import tariffs and investment restrictions for China worth around $60 billion, Beijing responded this week by announcing its own 25% import tariffs on US goods worth around $50 billion, including ...

2018-04-13 James Harte Read more
Canada holds interest rates steady

The Bank of Canada held its monetary policy meeting last Wednesday. As widely expected, the central bank of Canada holds interest rates steady at 1.25%. The central bank cited uncertainty related to trade factors as one of the reasons for keeping interest rates unchanged. Reiterating the statement from January which was largely unchanged, the...

2018-03-23 John Benjamin Read more
Bank of Canada rate hike

The Bank of Canada rate hike kicked off the New Year with an interest rate lift of 25 basis points. The rate hike by the Bank of Canada was widely expected by economists and the markets priced in the event too. The hawkish estimates came after the economic data from December 2017 showed that exports had improved for a second consecutive month...

2018-03-20 John Benjamin Read more

With the New Year on the horizon it’s time to take a look back over 2017 and explore what happened to the big calls that were being made at the beginning of the year.   The Trump Trade   At the start of the year, the main market focus was the newly appointed US President Trump and the prospect of massive fiscal stimulus and an ...

2018-01-17 James Harte Read more
NAFTA Talks

Little Progress in Mexico City The conclusion of the fifth round of NAFTA negotiations, ending yesterday in Mexico City, once again saw little in the way of significant progress. Given the lack of progress over the duration of these talks it is becoming increasingly unlikely that an amended treaty will be ratified before October 2018. Furthermo...

2018-01-25 James Harte Read more
COT report_Sterling_ECB

EURUSD Non-Commercials reduced their net long positions in the Euro last week selling 11k contracts to take the total position to 72k contracts. A resurgent US Dollar amid better US data and heightened expectations of a December rate hike has weighed on EUR sentiment following the ECB’s latest meeting which saw the market disappointed by the ...

2018-01-25 James Harte Read more
BOC_Poloz

The Bank of Canada will be meeting tomorrow for its monthly monetary policy review. According to the economists polled, the central bank is expected to hold back from hiking interest rates any further. Thus, the BoC's overnight cash rate is expected to remain steady at 1.0%. The BoC had previously surprised the markets with a back to back rate ...

2018-01-25 John Benjamin Read more