Fundamental Analysis

Markets are generally expecting a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the conclusion of Tuesday's meeting. But there is a wide range of disagreement about what could happen. The majority is inclined for a 25 bps cut. But…
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Next week starts with some data that could shake up or reaffirm the market's confidence in the future. The last few days have seen markets moving back to a risk-on profile, with stocks rising and safe havens falling. This has left gold and…
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Japan's central bank has been cautiously trying to raise rates for over a year now. With the economy staying in the green, it had room to do so. But, now that the consensus of economists points to the first negative GDP reading since the…
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The EURUSD has revered to a downward trend over the last week, mostly as a result of dollar strength. But on the European side, there doesn't seem to be much that could help arrest the fall. That is, if the dollar continues to gain. The…
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With the FOMC meeting fresh in everyone's mind, traders are going to be paying very close attention to US CPI figures coming out on Tuesday. The argument from economists and the Fed itself is that tariffs will likely cause higher consumer…
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Last week's BOE meeting was a bit of a surprise to the markets. This week we get a series of key data points to see if the trend left by the rate cut will persist. Traders are looking at a slightly more hawkish central bank in London, but…
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Markets seemed to take with cautious optimism the announcement on Thursday that the US and the UK had reached a deal on trade. It's perhaps best described as a framework agreement, as the 10% blanket tariffs will remain in place pending…
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There is considerable investor interest in the release of China's trade balance on Friday. It will cover the period right after the Trump Administration ratcheted up tariffs to as high as 245% on some products. Of course trade has already…
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The markets are pricing in a 107% chance that the BOE will ease at the next meeting, as a sign of just how dovish expectations are for Thursday's meeting. That means that as far as traders are concerned, the 25 bps cut is a done deal, and…
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The market and economists are pretty much unanimous in expecting the Fed to hold rates unchanged in the upcoming FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. That had been the forecast for quite a while. The big change, however, happened with the…
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