Fundamental Analysis

After hitting a high for the year, the EURUSD has been declining through most of the month. Normally, the explanation would be found in expectations around monetary policy. But, with the ECB expected to hold while the Fed is on a path…
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Markets are struggling to formulate a reaction to the latest developments in trade. A lot happened over the weekend, with a mix of both positive and negative elements for the markets. However, one trend is coalescing: increasing certainty.…
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There is a solid consensus that the RBA will agree to cut rates by 25 basis points at the end of its meeting on Tuesday. However, there are still some economists who disagree, and some have provided relatively strong comments about what is…
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Crude prices gained this week despite broad expectations that OPEC+ will implement another production increase when it meets over the weekend. There has been some positive economic news regarding demand. This was also offset by a surprise…
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Aside from some variations around geopolitical events, the price of gold seems to have plateaued a bit since late April. It's still up almost 30% since the start of the year, as a weaker dollar combines with investor interest in safe…
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Thursday sees an early release of June NFP figures as the US is closed for a holiday on Friday. The consensus is for continued weakness in the jobs numbers. But, unless there is a major shift in the data trends, markets seem to be generally…
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Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump hinted at firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, causing turmoil in the markets. Then the President confirmed that Powell would serve out his term. But, it seems Trump hasn't given up on doing more than…
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Analysts seem to be agreeing that the ECB(European Central Bank) is fast approaching the end of its rate cutting cycle, unless there is a major change in the trajectory of the economic data. The vast majority of economists now expect just…
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After being one of the most aggressive rate cutters, the European Central Bank(ECB) might have been the first major central bank to signal that easing is coming to an end. Of course situations vary between countries. But, a general trend…
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The outlook for what the ECB (European Central Bank) will do with rates has gotten a little bit murky. Trader attention was distracted by the events in the Middle East which could have had a profound impact on the EURUSD. But, now that the…
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