Fundamental Analysis

Markets are giving mixed reactions to Friday's US Supreme Court ruling invalidating the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump last April. The initial reaction was positive, with a surge in risk appetite. But after…
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Three major assets are higher on Friday, all driven by the combination of two factors that caught the market by surprise. Those are the dollar, gold and crude. Tensions between US and Iran are high now amid rumors that US President Donald…
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Friday has the release of flash PMI figures from several major economies, which normally move the market. However, a theme that has been developing over the last few months suggests that this time around, the data will have a greater impact…
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The Fed is entering a transition period in which a new Chair is expected to set the tone for monetary policy. This creates some market uncertainty, which could affect dollar pairs. It's particularly acute this time around, given US…
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Tuesday has multiple events that could profoundly affect crude prices. The moves could be even larger than normal, given thin trading in the market, as the world's largest importer, China, is on holiday. Depending on what happens over the…
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At its last meeting, the BOE cut its inflation outlook for this year, saying it will fall below target in the second half. This was interpreted as a sign that the central bank will cut rates at the next meeting in March. However, that…
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The dollar is once again softer this week, keeping the Euro relatively elevated. At just below the 1.1900 handle, it's still just a little below the 1.2000 level that caused alarm at the ECB just two weeks ago. While the dollar has weakened…
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The release of US jobs data earlier in the week was generally interpreted as supporting more hawkishness from the Fed. However, there were some mixed signals in the data. That means that the market might be open to a reversal depending on…
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The most important data this week for Sterling is the release of UK Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The consensus is that the UK economy will continue to rebound modestly, which could give the BOE more room to keep rates elevated. But a…
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Gold prices are back above $5,000, but will likely need a catalyst to push back towards the highs seen at the end of last month. But this is a somewhat unique double-feature week, with the release of both jobs and inflation numbers for the…
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