Intraday Analysis 20th June 2018
Trade war uncertainty continues. Focus on central bank speeches from Portugal.
Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/06/2018
The U.S. dollar managed to turn fairly stronger on the day on Tuesday. Economic data was limited. The U.S. building permits data showed an increase of 1.30 million. This was slower than the estimates of a 1.35 million increase. Housing starts fared better, rising 1.35 million and marked the highest increase on a month over month basis.
The market uncertainty continued with the U.S. President Trump announcing fresh tariffs on China which sent the equity markets closing lower on the day.
The lineup of speeches from various central bank chiefs takes precedence today. The speeches include that from the ECB President, Mario Draghi, BoJ’s Kuroda, and the Fed’s Powell. The central bankers are converging in Portugal for a banking conference.
It was only last year that the ECB President, Draghi talked up the euro currency which sent the currency pair rallying to fresh highs.
On the economic front, the U.S. existing home sales data will be coming out followed later in the evening by New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report. The quarterly GDP is expected to rise at a pace of 0.5%, slightly slower than the 0.6% increase that was registered in the previous quarter.
EURUSD intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.1574): The EURUSD currency pair formed an outside bar yesterday with the intraday gains failing to hold. The currency pair closed on a bearish note. The declines came following Draghi’s comments from Portugal where he reiterated his comments from the recently held ECB meeting. Price action was seen to be steady above 1.1539 level of support for the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD broke out to the downside from the bearish flag pattern only to retrace the losses rather quickly. Still, a close below the previous low at 1.15594 could suggest further declines.
USDJPY intra-day analysis
USDJPY (110.09): The USDJPY currency pair was seen to be closing bearish but price action managed to pullback from intraday lows of 109.57. Still, the near term retracement following the downside breakout from the rising trend line is expected to keep the bias to the downside. Failure to breakout above the trend line could signal another retest back to the support level at 109.57. There is also a possibility that USDJPY could break out from the bearish flag pattern which is yet to be validated.
XAUUSD intra-day analysis
XAUUSD (1273.91): Gold prices continued to inch lower despite the broader market sentiment. Price action is seen hovering near the 1274.50 level of support marking the lower end of the support zone at 1282 and 1274. A close below this level could signal continued decline in price action. The declines come following a period of consolidation in price action below the 1304 – 1301 level of resistance. A break down below 1274 could trigger further declines to the next main support at 1242.25.