USD/CAD – Daily Wave Count Still Bearish

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USD/CAD has been slowly but steadily rising for more than a year, from September 2017 until December 2018.

The structure, however, does resemble a corrective sequence, due to the multiple present overlaps.

USD/CAD – Weekly Chart

usdcad weekly

On the weekly time-frame, USD/CAD appears to be unfolding a Double Three pattern in Primary degree WXY (turquoise), within a Descending Channel.

* This article contains delicate information and should not be treated as investment advice or as a solicitation the trade. Risk must be considered.

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USD/CAD – Daily Chart

usdcad daily

On the daily time-frame, the gradual rise which occurred for approx. One year has been labeled as Primary X (turquoise), which has been developing complex swings and patterns within its sequence.

Primary X (turquoise) has been classified as a Double Three pattern, as per its Intermediate degree (W)(X)(Y) (purple) sub-waves.

Primary X (turquoise) – Waves and Structures

  • Intermediate (W) (purple) – Flat Formation / AB=CD Harmonic
  • Intermediate (X) (purple) – Pullback / Interruption
  • Intermediate (Y) (purple) – Flat Formation / AB=CD Harmonic

Intermediate (Y) (purple) could be coming to an end, as the Resistance faced around the 1.3440 levels could hold, all this if the 78.6% Fibonacci Extensions of Primary W (turquoise) would act as the reversal point.

Minor C (orange) would reflect the last leg of Intermediate (Y) (purple), and it could be finalized soon, thus potentially completing the larger degree structure.

Minor C (orange) – Bearish Outlook

  • 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minutes iii & iv (green) could determine the end of Minute v (green).
  • Upper trend-line of the Descending Channel synchronizing with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracements of Primary W (turquoise).
  • Bearish Divergence present at the potential completion of Minor C (orange).

*Summary

  • USD/CAD could be completing a larger degree structure, which if correct, could lead towards approx. 1500 pips on the down-side, should the 1.3440 levels hold as the decisive resistance.

*Heads-up!

  • Should USD/CAD be preparing for more upside, then this could mean that Minute v (green) could perform under an Extension. In this scenario, the next levels in focus would reflect the 1.3600 and 1.3875, which reveal as the next Fibonacci Extensions.

Many pips ahead!

P.S. USD/CAD structure is complex and extended in its complexity along the line. Some examples on how those scenarios occurred can be seen either with the “Trends And Reversals – Patterns And Correlations” article, or with the “Markets Vulnerable – Reversal Patterns – Bearish Sentiment – Divergences” video. With those views, the analysis performed ok, but not the entire way.

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