Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 12th April

EURUSD (1.14): Since last week’s analysis, EURUSD has remained in a trading range of 1.1437 – 1.1334. We expect to see this ranging continuation nearing the end with a potential breakout very likely around the corner. The Stochastics shows price action staying flat above the 80 levels indicating that momentum is weakening. While 1.105 – 1.10285 remains the most likely correction to the downside, support levels near 1.13 and 1.123 are likely to hold the declines for the moment. Regardless, EURUSD is expected to move lower, unless we see a conclusive break above 1.148.

• Bias (D1): Upside
• Support: 1.1334 – 1.130
• Resistance: 1.1437 – 1.148
• Technical forecast: The current flat price action is likely to see a correction take place for 1.105 – 1.10285 on break below the initial support at 1.1334 – 1.130

USDJPY (108.2): USDJPY closed with a small bodied candlestick pattern yesterday indicating a possible exhaustion in the momentum. A bullish close above the high at 108.443 could signal a potential correction. 111.0 remains in the first resistance level of interest which could keep USDJPY pressured to the downside. Another bearish leg could see prices potentially breaking below the 108.0 levels quite easily. To the upside, above 111.0 USDJPY will be likely struggling near the 112.5 – 112.0 levels of resistance in the near term.

• Bias (D1): Downside
• Support: 104.85 – 105
• Resistance: 111.0
• Technical Forecast: Possible signs of a correction towards 111.0 resistance but the bias remains to the downside

GBPUSD (1.42): Price action has been quite choppy with the downtrend showing signs of stalling. With the Stochastics closing with a higher lower against the lower low in prices, we can expect to see some upside momentum pushing prices to correct higher in the near term. However, the falling trend line needs to be broken in order to confirm an upside move in prices. With prices seen consolidating near 1.42 – 1.41 support, GBPUSD is more likely to move higher.

• Bias (D1): Flat
• Support: 1.42 – 1.41
• Resistance: 1.444 – 1.445
• Technical Forecast: Possible change of trend is likely on a move above 1.444 – 1.445 for a test to 1.463 – 1.481

USDCAD (1.29): Price action was capped within the descending wedge pattern with USDCAD trading close to the 1.29 level, just above 1.2865 minor support. As long as prices hold above this level, USDCAD could see a renewed upside taking shape. Resistance at 1.3136 will be key ahead of a further rally towards 1.3387 levels of resistance. In the event of a break below 1.29, USDCD could see further declines with the next support at 1.26 coming into the picture.

• Bias (D1): Downside
• Support: 1.29 – 1.2865
• Resistance: 1.3136
• Technical Forecast: If the current support at 1.29 – 1.2865 holds, USDCAD could see a short term correction towards 1.3136. Failure to hold above the support could see further downside in USDCAD

USDCHF (0.954): USDCHF broke the support at 0.9664 to fall to the lower support near 0.9547 – 0.9503. The flat price action here could see a possible bounce to the upside where the previously broken support level at 0.9664 could be tested for resistance. The bias remains to the downside unless prices manage to break out from the falling median line.

• Bias (D1): Downside
• Support: 0.9547 – 0.95
• Resistance: 0.9664
• Technical Forecast: Price action could remain range bound within the support/resistance levels mentioned. A break below 0.9547 – 0.95 could see the next leg of decline push lower towards 0.93.