Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 8th March

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Forex technical

EURUSD (1.1.0): EURUSD is currently trading near the resistance level of 1.095 – 1.10 as noted in last week’s technical outlook. Prices are however not clear of the woods as of yet as a daily close on a convincing candlestick pattern is needed for EURUSD to target 1.11 minor resistance level. The Stochastics are currently moving above from the oversold level, but we expect to see some consolidation taking place. In the event that EURUSD falls below 1.095, a dip to 1.081 is very likely. Ahead of the ECB’s meeting which will bring a significant level of volatility, EURUSD is likely to focus on 1.081 – 1.075 support and 1.123 resistance to the upside. The weekly chart’s price action shows EURUSD moving within a larger consolidating triangle with resistance at 1.136 – 1.135 and support at 1.06 – 1.056

EURUSD – Price action to move sideways with downside risks to 1.05 – 1.06
EURUSD – Price action to move sideways with downside risks to 1.05 – 1.06
  • Bias (D1): Flat
  • Support: 1.081 – 1.075
  • Resistance: 1.11
  • Technical Forecast: EURUSD remains flat within the larger support/resistance of 1.13 and 1.05 levels but the bias remains for a possible downside to test 1.05 or 1.06 lower support

USDJPY (113.1): USDJPY has been ranging within 114 top and 112.5 low for the past few daily sessions. This strong consolidation is likely to point to an imminent breakout in the near term. To the downside, 111.0 support will be likely to be tested, while to the upside, a move to as far at 117 – 117.5 is possible. The weekly chart closed with a doji pattern last week and a bearish close this week below the doji’s low of 112.16 could signal further declines for 111.0. The Stochastics shows a hidden bearish divergence which puts the bias to the downside, but support near 112.5 – 112.0 will be key.

USDJPY remains flat with a possible test to 111.0 likely
USDJPY remains flat with a possible test to 111.0 likely
  • Bias (D1): Flat
  • Support: 111.0
  • Resistance: 114 – 114.5
  • Technical Forecast: The hidden bearish divergence points to a dip to the downside for 111.0 support, while to the upside 114.0 – 114.5 resistance break could see a move to 117

GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD has posted a quick recovery off the lows near 1.38. Price action cleared the resistance level of 1.42 – 1.41 region and a potential descending triangle is forming currently. A breakout above this level could see GBPUSD test 1.4631 with limited downside risks. On the weekly chart, price action is moving steadily lower within the larger descending channel. Key resistance is identified near 1.4622 – 1.4756, which shows confluence with the daily chart’s resistance level as well.

GBPUSD – Watch for a potential breakout from the triangle
GBPUSD – Watch for a potential breakout from the triangle
  • Bias (D1): Upside
  • Support: 1.42 – 1.41
  • Resistance: 1.46 – 1.47
  • Technical Forecast: GBPUSD is likely to post a correction on the longer term declines with 1.46/1.47 resistance likely to be targeted

USDCAD (1.33): USDCAD has remained very bearish with little to no pullbacks. Price action cleared the 1.346 – 1.3387 support and a move to test this level for resistance will open further downside to 1.3136. In the event that USDCAD moves higher, the upper resistance at 1.367 – 1.364 will be coming in to hold the rallies. Stochastics are very oversold on the daily chart and indicates a risk of a spike to the upside. USDCAD has been steadily falling for the past 7 weeks and a correction is likely to happen in the near term.

USDCAD – Risks of a correction to the upside
USDCAD – Risks of a correction to the upside
  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 1.3136
  • Resistance: 1.346 – 1.3387
  • Technical Forecast: The steady decline for nearly 7 weeks exposes the risk of a possible correction. If 1.346/1.3387 resistance fails a move to 1.367 – 1.364 is likely

USDCHF (0.993): USDCHF has been consolidating strongly over the past week as the daily chart shows a possible bearish flag pattern in the making. Prices briefly touched the identified 1.0045 level and a break below 0.9928 – 0.9948 could risk a stronger move towards 0.9290, 161.8% of the bearish flag pattern. However, a move to the upside above 1.0045 could see USDCHF post higher highs or at the very least target previous highs near 1.025 levels. For now, the bias remains to the downside with USDCHF trading within the falling median line.

USDCHF forms a potential bearish flag
USDCHF forms a potential bearish flag
  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 0.966
  • Resistance: 1.0045
  • Technical Forecast: The bearish flag pattern could see a possible decline to the downside for an eventual target to 0.929
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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