Eurozone CPI is on the right path

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Eurozone_EU Inflation

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair fell to a two-week low hitting 111.31. The reason for the drop was the poor data release in the US service sector and less-than-expected new home sales. Across the markets, the greenback was going down due to latest PMI (Purchasing managers’ Index) in service – for the month of February, coming in under the forecasted value. This information succeeds an already setback of 9.2% for January in the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) when the sales reached 494K versus 525K expected.

The USD/CAD trend turn to bearish on Wednesday, hitting daily lows due to the Loonie strengthening once the latest oil inventory figure came out for the US and showing an increase in stocks for the week ending on 19th February. The EIA (Energy Information Administration) released a communication according to which oil inventories increased with 3.502 million versus an expected 3.427 million, but well under the 7.1 million reported by API (American Petroleum Institute) last Thursday.

UK’s ONS (Office for National Statistics) released yesterday the Q4 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) second estimation for this year’s. According to the report, the forecast was not changed and the quarterly growth rate was at +0.5% and yearly growth rate of +1.9%. The highest upticks are expected to be in the service and construction sector. The business investments were revised lower to 2.4% on a yearly basis from a previous 4.5% year-on-year and on a quarterly basis from 1.2% to a shrinkage of 2.1%.

For the Eurozone, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures went up in the month of January but remained below forecasts. According to the latest information, the prices rose on a yearly basis by 0.3% last month, just over December’s 0.2% rate (analysts estimated a 0.4% growth). Core figures (excluding tobacco, alcohol, energy and food) went up 1.0% alone on a yearly basis, same as in December.

The yellow metal prices went down, surrendering gains in favor of the greenback after latest US data showed a rise in durable goods orders for the month of January. Looking from a technical perspective, at the moment of writing the hourly 100MA (Moving Average) is set at $1,224.30 per ounce. With the release of a 4.9% hike in durable goods orders in the US for the month of January (beating the estimated +2.5% and surpassing by far December’s 5% drop) gold prices fell to $1,235 per ounce, close to the 100MA support line. The slight rise in the US jobless claims went unnoticed in the fuss created by the orders increase.

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Technical Strategist, CMT level 2 (MTA). Looking for good opportunities in the market, wherever they are, since 2009.