Forex Afternoon Wrap – 25/11

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US Durable goods orders rises 3.0%

  • BoJ MPC Meeting minutes released
  • Italy retail sales m/m -0.1% vs. 0.5%; y/y 1.5% vs. 1.4%
  • UK Spending review and autumn statement
  • US Durable goods orders m/m 3.0% vs. 1.6%; Core durable goods orders m/m 0.5% vs. 0.3%
  • US Weekly jobless claims 260k vs. 270k
  • US Personal income m/m 0.4% vs. 0.4%; personal spending m/m 0.1% vs. 0.3%
  • PCE Price index core m/m 0.0% vs. 0.1%
  • PCE Price index core y/y 1.3% vs. 1.4%; PCE Price index y/y 0.2% vs. 0.3%

Later

  • Housing price index
  • Services PMI
  • UoM Confidence
  • New home sales
  • Weekly Crude Oil inventories

The markets opened today after a late rally since yesterday’s US GDP data release. Despite the third quarter GDP being revised to 2.1% from the first estimates of 1.5%, the GDP data was weak when looking into the details. The commodity risk currencies rallied strongly yesterday. AUDUSD touched a 4-week high above 0.7275 earlier today before easing back off the highs. The Aussie is currently down -0.17% against the Greenback. The NZDUSD managed to keep its bullish momentum going and traded near session highs above 0.658 briefly before pulling back lower. The Kiwi remains flat against the US Dollar today after testing a two day high in late Asian trading.

The Japanese Yen which declined strongly yesterday continued its declined into the early European trading session before the Greenback managed to reverse strongly off the session lows near 122.265. USDJPY is up 0.28% at the time of writing. The Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes were released earlier today but the markets did not react much albeit leading to a minor strengthening of the Yen.

The European trading session was relatively quiet with no major economic releases. Italy’s retail sales number fell -0.1% for the month, missing estimates of 0.5% growth with last month’s retail sale being revised lower to 0.2%. The Euro, which was trending steadily since late Monday reversed all of its gains after nearing session highs of 1.0681. EURUSD fell to new lows at 1.057 at the time of writing, losing -0.61% for the day.

The British Pound was mixed in today’s trading after GBPUSD fell to session lows at 1.506 but managed to post a recovery off the session lows. GBPUSD is currently up 0.08% for th day at the time of writing.

The US trading session was geared up with a host of economic data being released. Durable goods came out strongly this month, rising 3.0%, beating estimates of 1.6%, while the initial jobless claims for the week rose less than expected to 260k below estimates of 270k.

However, personal income and spending were weaker than expected, rising 0.1% and 0.0% respectively. The PCE Price index was also unchanged, rising 1.3% and missing estimates of 1.4% on the core. Other data to come includes the US housing price index and the services PMI data followed by the UoM consumer confidence.

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