The British Pound closed the week on a bullish note gaining 0.7% for the week. The bullish strength in the British Pound comes as speculators start to position themselves for the month ahead as the BoE has been starting to turn hawkish as far as the UK rate hikes are concerned. While the BoE hasn’t quite given clear clues as to when the rate hikes will start the market positioning points to any of the upcoming BoE meetings which could see some of the doves take flight to the hawkish side of the vote. The Aussie came in as the second currency that was stronger last week gaining 0.26%. Although economic data was limited last week, the Aussie followed by the Kiwi’s rally points to a possible ‘risk off’ environment.
The Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc were the weakest currencies last week losing -0.33% each. The Canadian dollar came under pressure late Friday as the monthly GDP showed a second month of contraction. Bank of Canada had cut interest rates last month and had given downward revision of GDP and inflation numbers.
Fundamentals for the Week August 3 – 7
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 03-Aug | All Day | AUD | Bank Holiday | ||
| 03:30 | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.10% | ||
| 04:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | -2.30% | ||
| 04:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements m/m | 1.30% | ||
| 04:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.4 | 51.4 | |
| 04:45 | CNY | Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI | 48.3 | 48.2 | |
| 10:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 54.5 | |
| 10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50 | |
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 54.1 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.6 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.5 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 52.2 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | 51.4 | |
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.20% | 0.90% | ||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.40% | 0.50% | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.8 | 53.8 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | 53.5 | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.80% | 0.80% | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 49.5 | 49.5 | ||
| 17:50 | USD | FOMC Member Powell Speaks | |||
| All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 17.2M | 17.2M | |
| 04-Aug | 02:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 32.20% | 34.20% |
| 04:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | -3.10% | ||
| 04:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.50% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | Trade Balance | -3.06B | -2.75B | ||
| JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.90% | 0.70% | ||
| 06:45 | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.51|2.6 | ||
| 07:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||
| 09:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.40% | -0.20% | |
| 09:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -17.90% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -45.6K | -94.7K | |
| 4th-7th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.50% | 1.70% | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 58.6 | 58.1 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | PPI m/m | -0.10% | 0.00% | |
| Tentative | GBP | 10-y Bond Auction | |||
| 17:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | 1.80% | -1.00% | |
| USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 48 | 48.1 | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -10.70% | ||
| Tentative | USD | Loan Officer Survey | |||
| 05-Aug | 01:45 | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| NZD | Unemployment Rate | 5.90% | 5.80% | ||
| NZD | Labor Cost Index q/q | 0.50% | 0.30% | ||
| 02:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | -1.30% | ||
| 02:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 51.2 | ||
| 04:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 52.2 | 51.8 | |
| 10:15 | CHF | CPI m/m | -0.40% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 55.6 | 56.1 | ||
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 53.6 | 53.4 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 52.1 | 52 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.8 | 53.8 | |
| EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | -0.20% | 0.90% | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 58.1 | 58.5 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | -0.10% | 0.20% | |
| 15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 218K | 237K | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Trade Balance | -2.8B | -3.3B | |
| USD | Trade Balance | -42.6B | -41.9B | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 55.2 | 55.2 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 56.4 | 56 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -4.2M | ||
| 06-Aug | 04:30 | AUD | Employment Change | 12.5K | 7.3K |
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 6.10% | 6.00% | ||
| 08:00 | JPY | Leading Indicators | 106.90% | 106.20% | |
| 08:45 | CHF | SECO Consumer Climate | -8 | -6 | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | 0.40% | -0.20% | |
| 11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 50.4 | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.20% | -0.60% | |
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | 0.10% | 0.40% | ||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 2.10|1.5 | ||
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | 1.30|2.1 | ||
| 14:00 | GBP | BOE Inflation Report | |||
| GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 2-0-7 | 0-0-9 | ||
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
| GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 375B | 375B | ||
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
| Tentative | GBP | MPC Rate Statement | |||
| 14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 42.70% | ||
| 14:45 | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 269K | 267K | |
| 17:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.70% | ||
| 6th-13th | USD | Mortgage Delinquencies | 5.54% | ||
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 52B | ||
| 07-Aug | 02:30 | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 46.4 | |
| 04:30 | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | |||
| AUD | Home Loans m/m | 5.20% | -6.10% | ||
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||
| 08:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 3.30% | 3.30% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | German Trade Balance | 23.2B | 22.8B | ||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||
| 09:45 | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | -63.9B | ||
| EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | 0.40% | ||
| EUR | French Trade Balance | -3.7B | -4.0B | ||
| 10:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 516.2B | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Trade Balance | -9.1B | -8.0B | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | 2.60% | -14.50% | |
| CAD | Employment Change | 5.7K | -6.4K | ||
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.80% | 6.80% | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 224K | 223K | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.30% | 5.30% | ||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.00% | ||
| 17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 56.2 | 55.9 | |
| 22:00 | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 17.2B | 16.1B |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
The week ahead promises to be a busy week with major economic data due for release across all currencies.
RBA Cash Rate, Retail Sales, Jobs Report: The Aussie dollar will be busy the week ahead as important economic events include the RBA monetary policy decision, which is expected to keep rates on hold while the retail sales data for the month is expected to have grown at a pace of 0.5%. Also this week the Australian jobs report will be due. After a strong print last month, the unemployment rate is expected to have rise 6.1%, up from 6% last month.
New Zealand Employment data: The Kiwi monthly jobs report will be due this week on 5th August. Expectations are for the New Zealand unemployment rate to have risen to 5.9% from 5.8% previously. Also on the agenda is the GDT price index which has stayed bearish for the past few releases and has been one of the factors considered by the RBNZ for cutting the OCR rates.
BoJ Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan has put its QQE policy on hold and it is likely that the central bank will maintain the status quo at this month’s meeting. Other economic data from Japan includes the final manufacturing PMI and leading indicators.
Eurozone PMI’s and retail sales: The Eurozone will see a busy week with various economies reporting their monthly manufacturing and services PMI numbers. Retail sales data is also due and is widely expected to stay subdued.
BoE Inflation Report and PMI’s: The UK will see the monthly manufacturing, services and construction PMI’s being released. Alongside, the BoE is expected to release its inflation report and the markets will be keen to know the BoE’s opinion on inflation which has remain stubbornly low. The BoE will also meet for its monthly monetary policy and will follow up by the minutes release as well.
Canada jobs report: Canadian markets will be closed on Monday but the weekends with the all important Canadian jobs report. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to have remained steady at 6.8%, with a modest pickup in employment change. Ivey PMI is also due this week with expectations of a modest increase to 56.2
US Jobs Report: The US economic calendar is busy for the whole week, starting with the Core PCE price index data and various manufacturing and services PMI data. The most important data however comes this Friday with the July jobs report. Unemployment rate is expected to stay put at 5.3% and the market consensus is soft in terms of the monthly jobless change expected to grow by 224k. It is very much possible that the unemployment number for July could easily beat estimates.
