A favorable NFP may give more chances to the September rate hike term

The EURUSD ascending tendency is still in place as several factors are frequently changing the traders’ options. The euro has gained momentum until yesterday at noon. Traders manifested a new episode of trust in the Greek negotiations, but instead they received a bundled payment consisting of 1.6 billion euro due on 30 June. Today, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will present the creditors’ proposal to the parliament, thereby gaining more time for negotiations.

However, throwing a look at the last 24 hours, we would see that the American dollar fought back the favorite. Why? Because the Unemployment Claims slightly fell to 276k, the Revised Nonfarm Productivity was published to -3.1% and the Revised Unit Labor Costs increased to 6.7%. Even if IMF’s demand towards the Fed to postpone the rate lift off to the first half of 2016 is a requirement difficult to digest, traders seem confident that the today’s NFP will significantly increase the chances for a rate hike in September (a scenario which currently measures a low rate of credibility). EURUSD finds an important support level at 1.1176 – 1.1192 (a breakdown could cause an important fall of the price), while the resistance region is situated near 1.1269 (a breakout may lead to new local highs).

Today markets are expecting the OPEC’s two days meeting results. The oil quotations anticipatory reaction led the price action to mark new losses yesterday, but early this morning the price indicated a correction. The output is expected to remain unchanged, a fact that is broadly anticipated by the market. What may change the rules would be possible comments about their approach concerning the necessity of higher oil revenues, market share preservation and strong long term demand. Even if estimates show that OPEC members have been producing about one million barrels a day above that level, they urgently need to find a solution to the scenario of Iran returning to the production market. On 30 June is set the deadline for the nuclear negotiations in Teheran, thus officials are pressured to reach a consensus.

Both the WTI and Brent quotations are trading within a descending channel and if the OPEC’s decision adheres to the oversupply, the quotations may be thrown in the lower line region of the descending channel.

The British pound appreciated as the Central Bank announced no change in the interest rate (currently at 0.5%). Market participants are looking forward to see a rate hike by the end of the year, but if the economy doesn’t recover the first quarter losses, prospects may worsen. Currently a breakdown of the 1.5330 support level may bring back the quotation of the GBPUSD within the descending channel where 1.5255 and 1.5170 represent the main support levels.