Forex Trading Library

US GDP figures to determine the trend

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Although the situation is tensed, it seems that the euro does not want to perceive anything else but the positive rumors from the Greek-European negotiations. Every EURUSD correction of the downtrend is made by hungry traders and the rising American Unemployment Claims (282K) helped this tendency grow. The 1.0975 resistance area is still in place while a breakout may temporarily threaten the continuation of the downtrend. Today is due to be published the Preliminary GDP in the United States and the dollar may be seriously hurt, giving the negative estimates. If market fears come true, then the 1.1065 may become a comfortable resistance area for the EURUSD quotation.

The G7 meeting continues in its last day. Even if the agenda doesn’t include the Greece subject, officials may extend forward of the regulation given the seriousness of the situation.

The Sterling Pound outlines a new downtrend as the Queen’s Speech proved to contain clear signs that the British officials are thinking about an EU referendum. The pound may stay weak for the medium term, but today it may risk a positive correction if the American dollar gets disappointed by the GDP report.

The Japanese yen reached a prior 2002 peak as the triangle pattern, visible on a daily/weekly chart, gave a positive impulse to the USDJPY quotation. The price still has room to rise, but we should be attentive to a correction, which would give the rise more momentum to conquer the 124.70, 125.00 and eventually the 125.75 areas. Primarily, the tendency is justified by the fundamental divergence, frequently expressed by the officials of each part. Secondly, we need to keep in mind that markets don’t follow a linear motion, but are better characterized by shear movements. One of the current concerns of the Central Bank relates to the second sales tax hikes looming in 2017.

Even if the WTI oil quotation gave market participants heart palpitations by sliding to 56.50, eventually the basic scenario turned out to be true and the prices rallied towards the local resistance area, thereby encouraging a correction of the downward. The American crude oil inventories fell to -2.8 million barrels, lower than the estimates and the last report. On the other side, the big picture surprise the Saudi Arabia’s official position maintain the OPEC oil production amounts, Iraq’s plans to increase the production volumes, as well as the Iran’s preparation to enter the oil export market.

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