With the New Year on the horizon it’s time to take a look back over 2017 and explore what happened to the big calls that were being made at the beginning of the year.   The Trump Trade   At the start of the year, the main market focus was the newly appointed US President Trump and the prospect of massive fiscal stimulus and an ...

2018-01-17 James Harte Read more
Macron_French Election

It's Monday, the 1st of May of 2017 and the second round of the French election is less than 6 days away, where such election might change the shape of Europe once and for all. Latest Public Polls Since the end of the 1st round of the election, Macron has been leading with more than 60% of the public polls, while Le Pen was short below 40%...

2017-07-26 Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury Read more
Le Pen_Macron_FE_Update_2704

Macron & Le Pen into Final Round Following the results of the first round of voting which saw centrist Candidate Macron taking the lead with 23.8% of votes and far-right candidate Le Pen coming in second at 21.3%, the far-right leader took markets by surprise by announcing her temporary stepping down from her role as president of the Nation...

2017-04-27 James Harte Read more
French Election_Gold_2104

Summary: Election campaigning to end on Friday, April 21st mid-night Radio/TV silence to be maintained from Friday onwards Polling stations to open at 8 AM on Sunday, will close by 8 PM Initial results to be announced by 8 PM although counting of votes will continue The top two candidates will face off in the second round vote...

2017-07-26 John Benjamin Read more
FE_Marine le Pen_1904

Looking at The Data With the first round of the French elections rapidly approaching (April 23rd), voters’ sentiment appears to have settled around roughly 25% each for both centrist candidate Macron and Far-Right candidate Le Pen with Francois Fillon holding behind around 18% - 20%. The latest data reflects a gradual but steady decline in abst...

2017-04-19 James Harte Read more
FE_Le Pen_3003

Polls Show Le Pen & Macron Even in First Round A month out from the first round of voting in the French presidential election, centrist candidate Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen are roughly even in the polls. However, Macron is pegged to win in the second round at 60 – 40. The challenges to Le Pen winning this election are steep: she ...

2017-03-30 James Harte Read more
Le Pen_French elections_Russia_2403

Le Pen Back on Top in First Round Following a recent surge in support for centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, the latest polls show a similar boost in support for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen who is now back in the lead and expected to win 28% of the first vote with Macron following at 25%, 20% for Fillon and finally, Hamon last with 15%. ...

2017-03-24 James Harte Read more
Stoxx 50_French Elections_2103

The Bull & Bear Statues at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. With the French election race heating up and with the FOMC, ECB monetary policy decisions done with, the path to the French elections are quite clear with no other major hurdles. There could be some short-term volatility or noise coming off the Dutch election results, and perhaps to a...

2017-03-21 John Benjamin Read more
Le Pen - French Elections _1303

The French elections are less than a month away, and so far, the uncertainty is just increasing by the days, which likely to lead to higher volatility ahead. The recent polls show that the nationalist Marine Le Pen is promising to hold a referendum on taking France out of the Euro. Investors are focusing on the process, and more importantly, th...

2017-07-26 Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury Read more
Jean-Luc Melenchon_2202_FE

Jean-Luc Melenchon Problems With The French Left, Keep Potential For Le Pen Victory Alive At the end of last week, bond investors were unnerved by news of a potential alliance between Benoit Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and the Left Party’s Jean-Luc Melenchon. Looking at the current polling suggests that a united Left-Socialist cand...

2017-02-22 James Harte Read more