Fundamental Analysis

Cable dipped modestly on Monday after UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer announced he would resign and lead a caretaker government until his successor takes office. Markets had widely expected the move, so the reaction remained limited. If the…
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Tuesday's Flash PMIs for June are likely to be the most important data for currencies other than the dollar, but the Euro could be the most impacted. As markets try to digest how the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz will affect…
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The Canadian dollar is reacting to the situation in the Middle East, but after recent BOC and Fed meetings, it will likely come back to focus on fundamentals. The main takeaway from the two central banks is a divergence in policy outlooks,…
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The US and Iran have signed a deal to extend the 60-day ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of schedule. The surprise was met with cautious optimism in the market, as many uncertainties remain. Brent dipped to $70 per barrel,…
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Wednesday's First Warsh FOMC meeting will be pivotal for markets, not because there is an expected change of policy. It's the first meeting to be presided over by a new Fed chair in eight years and could bring important shifts in how the…
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Both the US and Iran acknowledged agreeing in principle to a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, with the formal signing expected on Friday in Switzerland. However, markets seem to be acting as if it's the de facto end of the war. The main…
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The most important data release for cable this week will be the UK monthly GDP data, released on Friday. As global economies face pressure from inflation and central banks turn more hawkish, the variance in economic performance is becoming…
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The ECB is widely expected to raise rates at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets have already priced in the move, so the decision itself may have little impact. Instead, traders will focus on updated economic projections and…
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The major risk event for the week is Wednesday's US CPI release. This could shift market views on the dollar outlook and move major currency pairs in response. The consensus is for inflation to accelerate. This could initially support the…
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The BOC Bank is widely anticipated to keep the interest rate unchanged at its upcoming rate decision on Wednesday. This would keep the interest rate differential between USD and CAD unchanged and allow the currency pair to fluctuate based…
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