Earlier this week, the total number of new reported covid cases reached an all-time high as the world faced a third wave.
Since then, there has been a slight drawback in the number of cases. But, it is of course, way too early to know if that was a peak, or if cases will continue to rise.
As the covid vaccine is rolled out across the world, faster in some areas than in others, a new record number in cases might be a cause for concern.
Some members of the media have already started speculating about a “fourth” wave, likely drawing parallels with the 1918 flu pandemic. But, in that case, there were no vaccines, and the disease subsided “naturally”.
Will the vaccines help cut the normal pandemic cycles down?
There have been both hopeful and worrying signs
The current third wave of the disease is largely being attributed to a rise in cases across the tropics.
The northern hemisphere is coming out of spring, when a natural drop in cases is expected – just like last year. Also like last year, cases in the southern hemisphere are expected to rise as people move indoors during autumn and winter.
So far, only a handful of countries have reached broad levels of vaccination, and with mixed results. On the one hand, Israel is the first and only country so far to have passed the 50% threshold where it’s projected that herd immunity comes into effect.
They have been inoculated almost exclusively with mRNA vaccines. And, as a result, Israel has seen a dramatic drop in cases, and recently lifted the requirement to use masking in public.
All alternatives are not the same
The UK using primarily AstraZeneca’s viral vector vaccine is near reaching 50% of the population, and has also seen a dramatic drop in covid cases.
Chile is in third place using an inactivated virus vaccine. And, despite having over 40% of the population vaccinated, the country has seen a dramatic increase in the number of cases – but not in deaths.
Both mRNA and viral vector vaccines have demonstrated to be near 100% effective in real-world settings at preventing death from covid.
On the other hand, they are more difficult to manufacture and transport. Other vaccines have over 80% effectiveness in preventing death, but only ~60% in reducing symptoms. Such symptomatic people are just as likely to transmit the virus as those who are unvaccinated.
Moving on to the future
Most virologists agree that the general trend for respiratory viruses is to become less deadly, although more transmissible, over time.
There are already 4 other known coronaviruses that infect humans. Those cause what is often called a “cold”. In fact, while new variants are scary because they might be able to evade the vaccines, the trend for covid is to become less deadly over time.
Infection fatality rates are around half of what they were a year ago. That’s still nearly three times that of the seasonal flu, however.
In terms of the effect on the markets, what drives lockdowns and other economic impacts primarily is risk to the health care system. Global death rates are lower than they were with a similar caseload prior.
In countries with successful vaccination programs, even if they are having higher case numbers now than before, significantly fewer people are showing up in hospitals.
In the end, it’s still down to the speed of the vaccine roll-out. Even if case numbers rise in the meantime.
