On June 10 USDNOK found support at the 9.1909 lower channel. It has since rallied to a high of 9.8136.
While the overall scope is bearish, a hidden divergence points to a window of opportunity towards the upper channel.
A bounce at 9.4260 Fibonacci of the aforementioned bullish leg has stymied bears. Sentiment will remain bolstered by the base support but will hang on momentum in the short-term.
Limited by the median regression of the short-term ascending channel at 9.5708, bulls need pivotal gains at R1.
The corrective drop is an initial rebalancing that will boost the pair should the structure maintain its impulsive nature above 9.4852.
A standard divergence signals more downside on the RSI (14), however, we bank on a recoil at the said level.
More short bets will increase the risk of further weakness below the 61.80% Fibonacci at 9.4260. Breaking that support will add doubt to the near-term upside continuation.