EURUSD Monthly Close Could Shift Flows!

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EURUSD rallied above 1.19 during the Friday session. However, bulls face a monstrous resistance above the multiyear high.

The long-term bearish trendline from the 1.60 top in 2008 started clouding the medium-term outlook.

Only a trendline break will increase chances to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.25. Without a valid breakout, we expect the pair to decline. Furthermore, we do so despite indicators offering no significant signs of a bearish signal.

On the other hand, we do see some bias appearing on the MACD histogram. To end the session with a false break, this might be what is needed.

The medium-term support lays at the 23.6% Fibonacci at 1.1670.


In the shorter-term, on an intraday basis, the upper regression was taken out. A slide back below the trendline resistance could provide a signal for more weakness.

Further down, the next support lays at the median regression of the medium-term ascending channel.

A move to the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 1.0720-1.1910 leg, near 1.1459 could follow. The said level comes in confluence with the median regression of the sort-term ascending channel. However, we require a break of the 23.6% Fibonacci first.

Any attempt to break higher will only be validated if the weekly or the monthly candlestick close above the trendline resistance.

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