Australia’s Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.2%

Technical Analysis 16 May 2019

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The latest monthly jobs report from Australia saw the unemployment rate rising unexpectedly to 5.2%. Economists had forecast that the unemployment rate would fall to 5.0%. Revisions to March’s report saw the unemployment rate being revised from 5.0% to 5.1%.

The monthly employment change rose 28.4k beating estimates with March’s figures are revised to show 27.7k jobs being added. The Australian dollar is down 0.21% at the time of writing, extending the declines after losing 0.23% by Wednesday’s close.

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Euro Stays Muted on GDP and Unemployment Data

The common currency was down 0.3% on the day on Wednesday. The revised GDP estimates for the first quarter came out at 0.4%. This was an unchanged print from the preliminary release. The quarterly employment change showed a 0.3% increase, beating estimates of 0.2%. Various regional indicators showed that growth was relatively stable. German GDP rose 0.4% while French GDP was up 0.3%.

EURUSD Consolidates Near the Trend Line

EURUSD currency pair was retracing the gains from the day before. Price briefly recovered to test the breached minor trend line. Overall, the currency pair remains trading within 1.1250 and 1.1140 levels. We expect this range to continue in the near term. There is scope for the common currency to potentially dip lower in the near term.

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WTI Crude Oil Rebounds on Inventory Buildup

Crude oil prices gained 1.25% by Wednesday’s close. The gains came after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a buildup of 5.4 million barrels against forecasts of an unchanged print. The buildup in inventory follows a draw of 4 million barrels in the week before.

Crude Oil Inches Closer to the Resistance Level

The rebound in oil prices has pushed price action close to the resistance level. A retest of the 62.85 resistance level could potentially seal the upside in oil prices. However, in case price breaks past this level, we expect to see further gains. The next main upside target is towards the 64.65 level. To the downside, the declines could stall at the support level of 60.33.

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Gold Trades Flat as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Gold prices were seen trading flat on Wednesday as the tensions between the US and China eased. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, said that both nations would resume talks. He also said that an understanding with Mexico and Canada to resolve the steel and aluminum tariffs was also close. Tariffs on automobiles were also deferred by up to six months.

Can Gold Regain the Momentum?

The decline in global tensions is likely to see gold prices turning flat. The new range of 1300 and 1285 is likely to be tested in the near term. Gold prices briefly rallied to intraday highs of 1300 before easing back. We expect the downside momentum could push the precious metal to test the 1285 support in the near term. But for the moment, the upside gains look to be capped.

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