Dollar Extends Gains On Mixed Data

Intraday Technical Analysis 02 April

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The US dollar index managed to hold on to the gains amid a mixed batch of economic reports. Retail sales fell 0.2% in February unexpectedly, while the ISM’s manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 during the month.

Construction spending data also came out stronger than expected. The dollar index rose 0.1% as it advanced closer to test a three-week high.

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Euro Slips as Inflation Slows

Consumer prices in the eurozone rose to a slower pace of 1.4% on the year in March, official data showed on Monday. This was well below February’s headline inflation of 1.5% increase.

Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation slowed to a pace of 0.8%, marking the slowest increase since April last year. The common currency lost 0.11% on the day as a result.

Will the EURUSD Declines Continue?

The currency pair slipped below the support level of 1.1217 on Monday and price action is now likely to test the March 7th lows of 1.1174 if the bearish momentum continues. However, there is a risk that the euro could post a modest rebound with the Stochastics oscillator heavily oversold. Any gains could stall near 1.1217 where resistance is likely to be established.

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Risk Appetite Puts Yen on the Backfoot

The Japanese yen lost 0.30% on the day on Monday. The declines came despite soft US data and China’s PMI which increased for the first time in five months. China’s vice premier, Liu He, is expected to arrive in Washington to continue with the trade talks. Investors remained bullish on risky assets in hopes of receding trade war concerns.

Can USDJPY Break the Resistance?

The currency pair extended strong gains on the day and price settled near 111.34 as a result. This marks a close right near the resistance level of 111.40 level where the USDJPY is currently consolidating. A breakout above this level is required for the USDJPY to continue to the upside, targeting 112.51. Failure to break out above this level may keep the USDJPY muted, but the declines could be limited.

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Gold Trades Close to Three-Week Low

The precious metal traded mostly muted on Monday, but price action turned bearish towards Monday’s close. Gold prices posted declines falling to a three-week low at the time of writing. The precious metal was down 0.36%, tracking the rising global risk appetite.

Can XAUUSD Break Out Lower from the Support?

XAUUSD is currently trading near the familiar support area of the 1290 – 1284 region. Previously, prices consolidated at this level before correcting to the upside. The 1284 support will be critical in the short term as a break down below this level could trigger sellers in the medium term. This would push gold prices lower to test the 1240 level of support. However, watch out for a potential double bottom pattern that could form at the support.

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