Intraday Technical Analysis 11 January
U.S. headline inflation forecast to fall on the month in December
The USD declines following the Fed minutes dissipated as the greenback managed to regain its dominance. The economic data on the day saw the release of the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes.
The ECB, in its minutes, revealed how some members wanted the language to be more dovish to reflect the recent slowdown in the Eurozone’s economy. The ECB also revealed it considers reviving its long term targeted refinancing operations.
Elsewhere, following on the heels of a slowdown from Germany, French industrial production also declined. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production fell 1.3% in November.
The early Asian session today saw the release of Australia’s retail sales figures.
The UK’s Office for national statistics (ONS) will be releasing its monthly GDP figures. Economists forecast the GDP to rise 0.1% on the month. This is followed by manufacturing production forecast to rise by 0.4% after falling 0.9% the month before.
Construction output should rise by 0.2%, offsetting the 0.2% decline the month before. The UK’s industrial production might increase modestly, 0.3% marking a modest increase from 0.6% decline previously.
The NY trading session will see the monthly inflation figures coming out. Headline inflation is forecast to decline 0.1% on the month while core inflation rose 0.2% on the month.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.15288): The EURUSD currency pair erased some of the gains from earlier this week on Thursday. Price action retreated off the highs at 1.1568 before managing to post a rebound halfway. The current bullish price action could see the common currency attempting to test the previous highs once again. A breakout above the previous highs could push the common currency to test the resistance level at 1.1575 which would mark the minimum price objective following the breakout. Alternately, there is a scope that the Euro could reverse the current gains and resume the correction lower to establish support at 1.1461.
AUDUSD intraday analysis
AUDUSD (0.7215): The Australian Dollar managed to maintain the bullish streak as it is currently testing the resistance area of 0.7191. The strong gains of the lows near 0.6936 came with little pullbacks or established support. This raises the risk that the currency pair could post a correction. The initial support at 0.7020 remains a key level of interest to the downside which could be tested if the current resistance level breakout fails.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1292.71): Gold prices reversed gains after testing the resistance area of 1295. Failing to breakout higher, price action dipped slightly lower only to change direction once again. If the current bullish momentum keeps up, gold could retest the previously established resistance level with the possibility of breaking out the resistance area around 1295. This could potentially pave the way for gold prices to test the 1300 round number resistance which has remained elusive so far.