The U.S. dollar was seen trading subdued on Thursday in the backdrop of the dovish interpretation from Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday.
Economic data on the day showed that Swiss GDP contracted 0.2% on the quarter ending September. This was weaker than expected and economists had forecast an increase of 0.4% instead. Data from the Eurozone was relatively quiet.
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The U.S. personal spending report showed a solid increase in consumer spending marking a strong start to the fourth quarter of the year. However, on the flipside, the price index data showed that inflationary pressures were easing. Personal consumption expenditure rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October. This was the biggest monthly gain since March this year.
Personal income also rose 0.5% marking the best monthly pace of increase since March. Pending home sales were down 2.6% on the month which marked a bigger than expected slump. Economist forecasts expected pending home sales to rise 0.8% instead.
Earlier today, Tokyo core CPI report showed that core inflation increased 1.0% on the year. Economists were expecting a 1.1% increase on an annualized basis. The unemployment rate for Japan was seen at 2.4%, which increased from 2.3% previously.
China’s manufacturing PMI for the month of November was released this morning. Data showed that manufacturing activity registered a reading of 50.0 which was slightly below estimates of 50.2. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 53.4.
The G20 meetings kick off today and the U.S. China trade talks will be dominating the headlines over the weekend.
The European trading session will see the release of the German import prices and retail sales figures. Both the indicators are expected to post a modest increase.
Eurozone’s flash inflation estimates for November will be coming out today. Economists forecast that consumer prices eased to 2.1% on the year ending November. This marks a slight decline from the 2.2% increase seen in October. Core inflation is expected to remain steady at 1.1%.
The NY trading session will see the GDP numbers coming out of Canada. This is later followed up by the Chicago PMI report.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1393): The EURUSD currency pair managed to build on the gains from Wednesday. Price action was seen edging higher. The upside target is expected to push the common currency to the resistance area of 1.1435 – 1.1462 level. We anticipate that the inverse head and shoulders pattern could potentially result in a breakout to the upside. Therefore, the neckline resistance level will play a crucial role in determining the next leg of the trend. Failure to break the resistance could put the common currency back to moving sideways within the levels.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.2782): The GBPUSD currency pair retraced the gains from Wednesday as price action once again eased. However, the support area of 1.2747 is seen to be still holding the declines. As long as the support level persists, we expect to see the upside bias taking shape. In the near term, GBPUSD could remain subdued at this level. However, there is a possibility that the breakout from the falling trend line could trigger the upside in price action. Alternately, to the downside, the GBPUSD could be seen testing the lower support at 1.2683. This could occur in the event that the current support level fails.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1225.05): Gold prices managed to hold on to the gains. Price action was seen rising back to the 1223.50 level, currently establishing support here. A follow-through is required so that gold prices could edge higher. Failure to post fresh highs could once again put the bias to the downside. The lower support at 1213.50 remains as a downside target with the potential for gold prices to extend the declines to the 1204.08 level. To the upside, the resistance level at 1242.25 remains a target.