Forex Trading Library

Intraday Technical Analysis 14 November

German GDP expected to contract

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The Euro currency was seen trading weaker with economic data and general sentiment turning negative.

The Euro slipped after comments from the ECB’s chief economist Peter Praet who struck a dovish tone on monetary policy. Mr. Praet said that the ECB was open to all options including reviving its bond purchase program.

The ECB’s chief economist said that significant monetary policy accommodation was still needed.

The ZEW economic expectations for Germany picked up slightly, but data showed that investors do not expect a strong recovery soon. The financial expectations advanced to -24.1 from -24.7 in October.

In the UK, the labor market data showed that wage growth rose 3.0% matching estimates. However, the UK’s unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% from 4.0%. The claimant count change also rose 20.2k.

Japan’s preliminary GDP data for the third-quarter released earlier today showed that the economy contracted 0.3% in the three months ending September 2018. This was weaker than the 0.7% surge witnessed in the second quarter. On an annualized basis, Japan’s GDP was seen rising just 1.2%, down from 3.0% increase in the second quarter.

In Australia, the wage price index data for the third quarter was seen rising 0.6%. This was in line with estimates and slightly higher than the revised wage price index data for the second quarter which was 0.5%. The data comes ahead of tomorrow’s monthly employment report.

The European trading session will see the release of the Q3 GDP report for Germany which is expected to show a 0.3% contraction in the economy. This is followed by French final inflation figures which are forecast to rise by 0.1% on the month.

The inflation report from the UK is forecast to show that consumer prices rose 2.5% on the year ending October 2018. This marks a slight acceleration from the previous month. Core CPI is forecast to rise 1.9%, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

The Eurozone’s third-quarter GDP report will be coming up later. Forecasts confirm that the Eurozone’s GDP advanced 0.2% in the third quarter of the year.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. Only the U.S. consumer price index data is due. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month, advancing from a 0.1% increase previously. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% from 0.1% previously.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1290): The EURUSD closed with some modest gains on Tuesday, and the reversal comes following Monday’s declines. However, price action is seen testing the previously breached support level at 1.1315 – 1.1300. Failure to clear this resistance could keep the EURUSD biased to the downside. The resistance area is seen also falling close to the 20-period EMA which could offer further resistance. The common currency will need to clear the falling trend line to confirm the upside.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2989): The GBPUSD currency pair managed to post a rebound after failing to touch down to 1.2808 level of support. The reversal saw price action filling the gap from Monday’s open. Further continued momentum could push GBPUSD back to the upside to the previously held resistance area of 1.3132 – 1.3086. Failure to clear this resistance area could keep GBPUSD trading within the said levels.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

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XAUUSD (1202.64): Gold prices extended the declines as it slipped below 1204 level of support. However, with price action closing with a doji pattern, a bullish follow through here could confirm the near-term upside. The resistance level at 1223.50 is the first target that could be tested to the upside. Alternately, if gold prices extend the declines below 1204, then the declines could push the price of the precious metal down to 1185.70 level of support.

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