Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/10/2018
The U.S. Dollar was seen maintaining the gains on Wednesday. The USD Index was seen rallying to a fresh one month high on an intraday basis. Economic data on the day showed that the Eurozone’s final services PMI was at 54.7, matching the flash estimates.
However, German final services PMI fell to 55.9 from 56.5 last month. Retail sales for the Eurozone fell 0.2% missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. Previous month’s data was also revised down to show a 0.6% decline.
In the UK, the services sector measured by Markit showed a modest decline from 54.3 in August to 53.9.
The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI was seen advancing to 61.6 on the index. This beat expectation of the index easing to 58.0 and up from August reading of 58.5.
The ADP’s private payrolls data showed another solid month of gains. Private sector hiring rose 230k for September beating estimates of 185k and advancing from 168k in August.
The economic calendar today is relatively quiet. No major events are scheduled. This could potentially see investors taking a pause ahead of the Friday’s payrolls report. The NY trading session will see the Canadian Ivey PMI report coming out. Forecasters estimate an increase in the index to 62.3 from 61.9 a month ago.
The U.S. factory orders report will be coming out later. Forecasts put the factory orders to rise 2.2% on the month after a 0.8% decline previously.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1465): The EURUSD currency pair is seen extending declines for six consecutive days. Price action briefly posted a rebound off the support level near 1.1547 – 1.1525. However, failure to follow through this rebound has pushed price action lower. The next downside target is seen at 1.1435. However, we expect that this support level is unlikely to hold the declines. In the near term, any rebound off the lower support could push the EURUSD to maintain a range within 11547 – 1.1525 and the support at 1.1435.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.2926): The GBPUSD currency pair is seen extending the declines after a brief bounce just below the 1.3028 – 1.3054 level of resistance. There is, however, a scope for price action to test this level more firmly. A reversal off the resistance level could push GBPUSD lower. The next primary target is seen at 1.2808, a support level that is pending a retest. To the upside, if GBPUSD breaks above the resistance area, we could expect to see a shift in the bias to the upside with the resistance level at 1.3250 being tested.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1196.43): The short rally in gold prices stalled as price action was seen reversing the gains after hitting a peak near 1206 level. The reversal saw a quick decline back to 1197.50. Price action is currently seen testing the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. We expect to see further decreases pushing the price down to 1193.00. This level served as a brief resistance level. A retest of this level for support could potentially bring some upside in price action.