FX Week Ahead: Inflation, Wage data to dominate the week

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The economic calendar for the week ahead turns somewhat busy with lot of economic reports due from the world’s major economies.

Kicking off the week, China will be reporting on its quarterly GDP figures. The data comes following last week’s strong surge in producer prices. However, with the U.S. trade tariffs uncertainty, the economy is expected to take a hit. This could most likely be reflective in the coming quarters.

China’s quarterly growth rate is expected to rise 1.4% which is expected to bring the annual GDP growth rate to 6.7%.

New Zealand will be reporting on its quarterly inflation data this week. The median estimates point to a yearly increase of 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, New Zealand inflation rate is forecast to rise 0.6%.

The UK will also be releasing its labor market data on Tuesday followed by the inflation figures on Wednesday. The UK’s inflation rate is expected to rise 2.3% on an annual basis, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Data from the U.S. will see the release of the retail sales figures followed by building permits and housing starts data due later in the week.

The economic calendar from the Eurozone is somewhat quiet in comparison with only the final inflation figures expected to come during the week.

Here’s a quick recap of the economic events for the week ahead.

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UK inflation expected to rise in June

The week ahead will be a busy one for the UK. The data over the week covers the labor market, inflation and retail sales spending, all of which should provide enough glimpse into the various aspects that could likely influence the Bank of England.

The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Wage growth is also largely expected to be unchanged. The average earnings including bonuses are expected to rise at a pace of 2.5%, rising at the same pace as the period before.

Excluding bonuses, the average earnings are expected to rise at a slower pace of 2.7%.

The inflation data coming up later in the week is forecast to show an increase of 2.6% on an annual basis in June. The strong gains in consumer prices are expected on the back of higher energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices are expected to rise 2.0%, a somewhat slower pace compared to the month before.

Lastly, the retail sales report is due on Thursday. Economists forecast that retail sales in the UK excluding gasoline advanced 3.7% on the year. This is a slower pace of increase compared to the 4.4% increase registered the month before.

Retail sales including gasoline prices are also expected to rise at a slower pace of 3.6% in June.

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New Zealand inflation expected to tick higher

The week ahead will see the release of the quarterly inflation data from New Zealand. Headline consumer price index is forecast to rise 0.1% on the quarter ending June 2018.

This is expected to bring the annual inflation rate in New Zealand to 1.2%, marking a modest increase from the annual inflation in Q1 2018.

Despite the modest uptick, consumer prices are expected to remain well below the RBNZ’s forecasts. In May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecast that consumer prices will rise 1.5% on the year.

The modest gains are expected due to a mix of factors including higher fuel prices. Energy prices alone are expected to rise strongly during the quarter. The higher fuel prices are also expected to push the cost of transportation higher as well.

Food prices are also expected to rise with an uptick forecast in the accommodation services.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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