Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/04/2018
The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday did not show any surprises even as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of the meeting. However, members were seen to be hawkish as all members preferred to see higher GDP and inflation. There was also building consensus among the voting members for more rate hikes.
Investor sentiment was kept in check with developing global stories which included the U.S. President Trump threatening to take action against Russia in Syria while reports showed that Saudi Arabia had intercepted a missile over Riyadh.
On the economic front, data from the UK showed that manufacturing production fell 0.2% on the month with the previous month revised down to show an unchanged print. Construction output also declined 1.6% on the month while industrial production rose just 0.1%. The British pound however managed to maintain the gains.
Data from the U.S. showed that headline CPI fell 0.1% on the month in March but still the annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%. Core CPI which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% on the month as expected.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the BoE’s Broadbent speaking earlier in the day. This is followed by the final inflation figures from France. The main highlight of the day will of course be the monetary policy meeting minutes which will be released by the ECB.
The NY trading session is relatively quiet with only the BoE Governor Carney expected to speak at an event later in the day.
GBPUSD 12-04-2018 Intra-day analysis
GBPUSD (1.4184): The British pound managed to hold on the gains after price broke past the 1.4162 level of resistance earlier this week. Price action has been consolidating above this level in the short term and we expect to see a retest of the breached support level. If support is established at 1.4162, then we expect to see further gains in store. Alternately, if the support at 1.4162 fails, GBPUSD could be posting a correction to the downside with a retest of the lower support seen at 1.4100.