Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/04/2018
The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday did not show any surprises even as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of the meeting. However, members were seen to be hawkish as all members preferred to see higher GDP and inflation. There was also building consensus among the voting members for more rate hikes.
Investor sentiment was kept in check with developing global stories which included the U.S. President Trump threatening to take action against Russia in Syria while reports showed that Saudi Arabia had intercepted a missile over Riyadh.
On the economic front, data from the UK showed that manufacturing production fell 0.2% on the month with the previous month revised down to show an unchanged print. Construction output also declined 1.6% on the month while industrial production rose just 0.1%. The British pound however managed to maintain the gains.
Data from the U.S. showed that headline CPI fell 0.1% on the month in March but still the annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%. Core CPI which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% on the month as expected.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the BoE’s Broadbent speaking earlier in the day. This is followed by the final inflation figures from France. The main highlight of the day will of course be the monetary policy meeting minutes which will be released by the ECB.
The NY trading session is relatively quiet with only the BoE Governor Carney expected to speak at an event later in the day.
EURUSD 12-04-2018 Intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.2368): The EURUSD rallied to the 1.2400 area before retracing the gains. The test towards the 1.2400 region comes after the euro currency posted gains for four consecutive days following the rebound off the 1.2241 level of support. On the 4-hour chart, the multiple retests near 1.2385 suggests that the momentum in price action might be slowing. We expect the EURUSD to ease back from the current highs and maintain a sideways range within 1.23385 and 1.2300 region.