Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/04/2018
The U.S. dollar managed to post some modest gains on the day amid most of the economic data focusing on the manufacturing PMI’s. Data showed that the Eurozone final manufacturing PMI was steady at 56.6, matching estimates and unchanged from the previous month.
In the UK, manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 which was slightly higher than the estimates and up from the previous month’s print of 55.0.
FOMC member, Brainard spoke late yesterday where she warned on the risks of an acceleration in inflation. She said that the government’s fiscal stimulus which comes at a time when the U.S. was heading to full employment could push consumer prices higher. The USD was broadly unchanged on her comments.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the release of the monthly private payrolls data from ADP/Moody’s analytics. Economists forecast that private sector jobs rose 208k during the month of March, slightly lower than the 235k jobs created the month before.
In the Eurozone, the flash inflation estimates for March is expected to show that consumer prices surged 1.4% on the year up from 1.1% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise 1.1%, slightly up from 1.0% previously.
The weekly crude oil inventories report will be coming out today with estimates showing another week of inventory buildup of 1.4 million barrels per day.
EURUSD 04-04-2018 Intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.2282): The common currency was seen extending the declines yesterday marking a five day decline as prices fell to intraday lows of 1.2253. Initial resistance in the short term is seen at 1.2300 which could be tested. A reversal off this level could keep the EURUSD biased to the downside. However, in the event that the common currency manages to close above 1.2300, further gains could push the EURUSD towards the 1.2385 handle which marks a retest of a major resistance level. To the downside, the lower end of the range near 1.2243 is likely to hold the declines in the near term.