FX Week Ahead: US GDP and Payrolls, Eurozone inflation

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The slow pace of the markets is likely to come to an end as traders prepare for a busy September. The week ahead will start off on a somewhat slow note but picks up the pace by mid-week.

Economic data includes key market moving events such as the US GDP numbers and the flash inflation data from the Eurozone. Canada will also be reporting on the GDP numbers this week followed by Friday’s ISM manufacturing PMI and the US nonfarm payrolls.

Canada will also be releasing its monthly GDP numbers this week. Estimates show that Canada’s economic activity expanded at a pace of 0.1% which is lower than the 0.6% GDP growth seen the month before.

Here is a brief recap on what to expect from the currency markets in the week ahead.

Eurozone Flash Inflation Estimates – August

It is inflation time again in the Eurozone with the European statistics agency, Eurostat expected to release its findings on the flash inflation estimates for August. According to economists polled, consumer prices might have accelerated at a pace of 1.4% on the year in August. This is higher than July’s 1.3% increase.

Core consumer prices which strip out the volatile food and energy prices are forecast to rise at a steady pace of 1.2%, the same as the month before.

Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium. At the event, Draghi did not offer many clues on monetary policy. Still, the debate about tightening monetary policy continues. With investors left clueless, the current speculation has led to further appreciation in the common currency. By Friday’s close, the EURUSD was seen posting fresh highs and trading near $1.19.

Draghi’s decision not to speak about monetary policy came along the lines of the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen as who did not offer any insights into the Fed’s tightening plans. As a result, traders and investors will be looking for the economic data to assess what the next move from the ECB might be. This puts the inflation estimates for August in focus as a better than expected headline print could no doubt fuel bets that the ECB could announce its tightening policy when it meets in September.

Busy week for the USD: GDP, ISM manufacturing PMI, and the payrolls report

The economic calendar from the United States is packed with a lot of important data that could potentially shape the sentiment in the greenback. By Friday’s close, the US dollar index was seen closing at 9.45.

Starting the week will be the US second revised estimates for the Q2 GDP. The median estimates point to a slight upside revision. The US GDP is expected to have advanced 2.7%, higher than the initial estimates of 2.6%. The slight increase in economic activity is unlikely to move the markets much.

Later in the day, the ADP private payrolls data will also be coming out. Estimates point to a slightly better headline print of 186k compared to July’s 178k which in most likelihood will be revised.

Friday will, however, turn out to be a big day for the US dollar with both the payrolls and the ISM’s manufacturing PMI report due for release. The US labor market is forecast to show 180k jobs being added during the month of August.

The unemployment rate is also expected to remain put at 4.3%. However, the average hourly earnings are expected to rise only 0.2% on the month. In July, wages were seen rising 0.3% on the month putting the year over year change at 2.5%. July also marked the biggest increase in average earnings in nearly five months.


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