The yen was back at the top of the currency board last week with risk aversion on account of market uncertainty and the BoJ’s inaction. The yen was up 2.72% for the week, as USDJPY hovers near the 104 level. Earlier in the week, the dollar slipped below 104 briefly before managing to close modestly higher. The sterling was interestingly higher over the week, closing with 0.67% gains. All the central bank meetings last week saw no changes to policy ahead of this Thursday’s UK referendum vote.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest this week, losing 0.91%. Oil prices were seen slipping sharply through the first part of the week, making the Canadian dollar weaker, besides the fact that inflation in Canada was fairly modest. The Kiwi was also weaker with mostly the US strength fluctuating the exchange rate.
Fundamentals for the Week 20/06 – 24/06
|20-Jun||00:01||GBP||Rightmove HPI m/m||0.40%|
|07:00||EUR||German PPI m/m||0.40%||0.10%|
|11:00||EUR||German Buba Monthly Report|
|13:30||CAD||Wholesale Sales m/m||0.20%||-1.00%|
|15:30||AUD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.10%|
|21-Jun||00:25||AUD||RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks|
|00:50||JPY||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|02:30||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|05:30||JPY||All Industries Activity m/m||1.30%||0.10%|
|Tentative||EUR||German Constitutional Court Ruling|
|09:30||GBP||Public Sector Net Borrowing||9.5B||6.6B|
|10:00||EUR||German ZEW Economic Sentiment||5.1||6.4|
|EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment||15.3||16.8|
|11:00||GBP||CBI Industrial Order Expectations||-10||-8|
|15:00||USD||Fed Chair Yellen Testifies|
|23:45||NZD||Visitor Arrivals m/m||-1.10%|
|22-Jun||01:30||AUD||MI Leading Index m/m||0.20%|
|04:00||NZD||Credit Card Spending y/y||9.10%|
|10:00||CHF||ZEW Economic Expectations||17.5|
|Tentative||EUR||German 30-y Bond Auction||0.88|1.4|
|Tentative||EUR||Long Term Refinancing Option||7.3B|
|13:30||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||-0.30%|
|CAD||Retail Sales m/m||-1.00%|
|14:00||CHF||SNB Quarterly Bulletin|
|CNY||CB Leading Index m/m||0.10%|
|USD||Fed Chair Yellen Testifies|
|USD||Existing Home Sales||5.53M||5.45M|
|15:30||USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-0.9M|
|23-Jun||03:00||JPY||Flash Manufacturing PMI||48.2||47.7|
|08:00||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI||48.8||48.4|
|EUR||French Flash Services PMI||51.5||51.6|
|08:30||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI||52.1||52.1|
|EUR||German Flash Services PMI||55||55.2|
|09:00||EUR||Flash Manufacturing PMI||51.4||51.5|
|EUR||Flash Services PMI||53.2||53.3|
|09:15||AUD||RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks|
|All Day||GBP||UK EU Referendum Vote|
|14:00||EUR||Belgian NBB Business Climate||-2.9||-2.8|
|14:45||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI||50.5||50.7|
|15:00||USD||New Home Sales||561K||619K|
|USD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.20%||0.60%|
|24-Jun||00:50||JPY||BOJ Summary of Opinions|
|09:00||EUR||German Ifo Business Climate||107.6||107.7|
|EUR||Italian Retail Sales m/m||0.20%||-0.60%|
|09:30||GBP||BBA Mortgage Approvals||37.9K||40.1K|
|13:30||USD||Core Durable Goods Orders m/m||0.10%||0.50%|
|USD||Durable Goods Orders m/m||-0.80%|
|15:00||USD||Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment||94.2||94.3|
|USD||Revised UoM Inflation Expectations||2.40%|
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: Following a busy last week, the AUD is likely to take a breather this coming week with the economic calendar staying light. Important data includes the monetary policy meeting minutes due for release on June 21 followed by the House Price Index for the quarter. With the exception of the RBA’s MPC, the Aussie is likely to take its cues from the US dollar, and the main Brexit even risk over the week.
NZD: A light week for the Kiwi, the only main data over the week is due next Sunday when the trade balance numbers will be released. As such, the Kiwi is likely to remain trading flat with the US dollar strength likely to dictate the flows.
JPY: The economic data next week includes the BoJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes due on Tuesday, June 21. Not much of data is expected to move the yen, with the focus being on Thursday’s Brexit referendum vote. The yen is likely to remain volatile into the event, especially after the BoJ refrained from making monetary policy changes last week. Also with the markets now confident that the BoJ is unlikely to intervene near the current levels, the yen could pose a significant risk of an upside.
EUR: Data from the Eurozone this week will see flash PMI numbers coming out. The German ZEW economic sentiment is due on June 21 followed by the German Ifo business climate on Friday. While Brexit referendum vote remains a big risk, on Sunday, Spanish parliamentary elections will be another geopolitical risk to watch out for.
GBP: All eyes will be on the Pound Sterling this week as the UK goes to polls on Thursday. With the economic calendar in the UK staying light, the GBP remains volatile to news flows on Brexit related headlines. Expect volatility to pick up starting Tuesday and could last through Friday.
CAD: Data from Canada is quiet for the week ahead with only the core retail sales and wholesale sales numbers coming out. The Canadian dollar is unlikely to be affected much by the Brexit vote, making USDCAD a key currency pair that traders who wish to avoid the Brexit risks could target.
USD: The US dollar heads into another crucial week. Besides the fact that the Brexit vote remains a key influencing factor, Janet Yellen will be testifying on Tuesday and Wednesday. Her comments are unlikely to see the markets move much. Later in the week, durable goods numbers are up on Friday.