Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 29th March

Posted on
Forex Forecast

EURUSD (1.118): EURUSD is looking to retrace the declines over the past week after forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart yesterday (28/03). Price action remains below the resistance level of 1.13 – 1.123, so the immediate upside remains capped near 1.123. A break above 1.123 could see a potential rally back to the 1.130 level of previous resistance. But overall, the upside remains limited, unless there is a convincing break above the 1.130 resistance high, in which case, EURUSD could see further gains to 1.148. To the downside, 1.110 support will be tested, a break below could see a move to 1.10.

  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 1.11
  • Resistance: 1.13 – 1.123
  • Technical Forecast: A close above 1.123 could see EURUSD range sideways to 1.13, but upside remains capped, leaving prices vulnerable towards 1.110
EURUSD upside limited to 1.13 while 1.110 support likely to be tested
EURUSD upside limited to 1.13 while 1.110 support likely to be tested

USDJPY (113.61): USDJPY continues its strong and gradual move to the upside, but prices are reaching the resistance level near 114.056 – 114.877. The daily Stochastics continues to point to the hidden bearish divergence towards the support near 112.5 – 112.0. Establishing support here could see a potential base being formed, in which case prices could eventually move higher. There is also a possibility of an inverse head and shoulders pattern being formed with the neckline resistance near 114.0 – 114.50 levels. A test to this level and a dip to 112.5 – 112.0 would form the right shoulder. If this pattern unfolds as expected, a break above 114.5 could see USDJPY rally towards 117 resistance for a much-needed retest.

  • Bias (D1): Upside
  • Support: 112.5 – 112.0
  • Resistance: 114.0 – 114.5
  • Technical Forecast: Watch a potential inverse head and shoulders unfolding if prices dip to 112.5 – 112.0, which could see USDJPY breakout and test 117
Watch for a potential inverse head and shoulders near 112.5/112 for 117
Watch for a potential inverse head and shoulders near 112.5/112 for 117

GBPUSD (1.422): GBPUSD is attempting to recover some of the lost ground following the bullish engulfing pattern formed yesterday (28/03). Price action remains supported near the 1.42 – 1.410 levels thus capping the downside. It is also very likely that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is taking shape, provided GBPUSD does not fall below 1.41. A retest to the slanting neckline resistance near 1.4445 could see an upside breakout, which will be immediately capped near 1.4631 – 1.481 resistance, but above this level, a test to 1.50 cannot be ruled out. A break below 1.41 of course invalidates the upside bias.

  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 1.42 – 1.41
  • Resistance: 1.4445 – 1.45
  • Technical Forecast: Watch for a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, which will see an initial rally to 1.45, followed by a test of resistance to 1.4631.
Inverse head and shoulders validation could see a move to 1.463, 1.481
Inverse head and shoulders validation could see a move to 1.463, 1.481

USDCAD (1.32): USDCAD has formed a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday indicating a downside correction. Support at 1.3136 – 1.31 will be the likely level to be tested. This could potentially form a higher low, in which case USDCAD will see an eventual rally to 1.3387 – 1.346. Above this resistance, 1.367 – 1.364 comes into the picture. Alternately, a close below the previous low could keep the downside bias intact.

  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 1.3136 – 1.31
  • Resistance: 1.346 – 1.3387
  • Technical Forecast: Prices could correct the downside in the near term if USDCAD establishes support near 1.3136 – 1.310
USDCAD could see a pullback to 1.367 - 1.364
USDCAD could see a pullback to 1.367 – 1.364

USDCHF (0.974): USDCHF retraced some of the losses but has turned lower on the bearish engulfing. A decline back to the previous lows near 0.9664 is, therefore, likely. A break below this low could see USDCHF post further declines towards 0.9457 support. To the upside, a breakout from the falling median line could see USDCHF target 0.9848 – 0.9928 resistance. Watch the daily Stochastics, which is forming a bullish divergence.

  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Support: 0.9664
  • Resistance: 0.9848
  • Technical Forecast: Potential bullish divergence points to a correction towards 0.9848 resistance if support at 0.9664 holds
USDCHF could see a correction to 0.9848
USDCHF could see a correction to 0.9848
(Visited 20 times, 1 visits today)

John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

Follow Me:
Twitter