Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 15/01, 2016

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AUDUSD (0.68): The Australian Dollar was significantly under pressure this week on concerns from China and a general risk off sentiment. The Aussie fell -1.20% during the week as prices touched a 5-year low this week at 0.686. The declines came about despite the monthly unemployment data beating estimates as the Australian unemployment rate was steady at 5.80% while the net jobs fell -1k, less than expected with the previous month’s jobs numbers being revised higher.

  • ANZ Job advertisements m/m -0.10% vs. 1.10% previously
  • Monthly employment change -1.0k vs. -11.0k
  • Monthly unemployment rate 5.80% vs. 5.90%
  • Home loans m/m 1.80% vs. -0.40%

EURUSD (1.09): The Euro is up a modest 0.27% at the time of writing for the week but prices remain volatile EURUSD posted an Intra-week low to 1.0813 but soon bounced off the low to reach a weekly high of 1.0983 before easing back modestly. Economic data this week saw the Eurozone industrial production numbers turn weak, falling -0.70% for the month. ECB’s meeting minutes from December showed that more members expected a bigger rate cut in the deposit rates. The Euro initially slipped on the minutes but managed to stabilize sooner.

  • Sentix Investor confidence 9.6 vs. 11.5
  • France CPI m/m 0.20% vs. 0.10%
  • Eurozone industrial production -0.70% vs. -0.20%
  • Italy industrial production m/m -0.50% vs. 0.30%
  • Germany WPI m/m -0.80% vs. 0.10%
  • ECB releases monetary policy meeting accounts
  • Eurozone trade balance 22.7bn vs. 21.1bn

NZDUSD (0.64): The Kiwi is down -1.95% for the week as the commodity risk currency struggles with the sell off on account of the market sentiment. NZDUSD is down for the second consecutive week falling off the previous highs near 0.684 and posting a 15-week low at the time of writing. Economic data from New Zealand this week was relatively quiet with no market-shaping events.

  • ANZ Commodity prices m/m -1.80% vs. -5.60%
  • FPI m/m -0.80% vs. -0.20%

USDJPY (117.1): USDJPY is down -0.44% for the week, as prices briefly touched a low near 116.9 before posting a strong pullback off the 4-month low. The USDJPY aptly captured the market sentiment this week as the Yen gained on risk aversion. The losses come about after the currency fell nearly -1.48% last week. Data from Japan was limited to consumer confidence which was up at 42.7 while Producer prices index fell -3.40%.

  • Current Account 1.42Tn vs. 1.52Tn
  • Bank Lending y/y 2.20% vs. 2.30% previously
  • Consumer confidence 42.7 vs. 42.3
  • Economy watchers sentiment 48.7 vs. 46.7
  • Core machinery orders m/m -14.40% vs. -7.30%
  • PPI y/y -3.40% vs. -0.40%
  • Prelim machine tool orders y/y -25.8% vs. -17.70%

USDCAD (1.44): USDCAD is one of the strongest currency pairs this week as the Greenback rallied near 2.02% to the Canadian Dollar. Prices touched a new high at 1.452 this week as the CAD remains weak with housing starts rising less than expected and the continued slump in the Oil markets. The sharp rally this week triggered comments from various government officials from Canada noting that they were monitoring the exchange rates.

  • Housing starts 173k vs. 202k
  • NHPI m/m 0.20% vs. 0.20%

GBPUSD (1.44): The British Pound is down -1.26% for the week as the Cable touched a new low near 1.435 at the time of writing. GBPUSD is now down for nearly a third straight week of declines posting consecutive lower lows and highs. Data this week from the UK saw disappointing industrial and manufacturing production numbers which cast a gloomy shadow on the Q4 GDP estimates. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and revised down their GDP forecasts for Q4 2015 and Q1 2016.

  • Manufacturing production m/m -0.40% vs. 0.10%
  • Industrial production m/m -0.70% vs. 0.0%
  • BoE leaves interest rates at 0.50%
  • NIESR GDP estimates 0.60% vs. 0.60% previously
  • Construction output m/m -0.50% vs. 0.50%

USDCHF (0.99): The Dollar is up 0.46% against the Swiss Franc this week managing to make some gains despite the risk-off sentiment. USDCHF touched an Intra-week high to 1.0099 before pulling back lower and remains range bound off last week’s high and low. Data this week from Switzerland included the retail sales for the year, which fell -2.10% against expectations of 0.30% increase.

  • Retail sales y/y -2.10% vs. 0.30%

US Dollar Index (98.7): The US Dollar Index is up 0.13% for the week, trading at 98.7. Prices remained flat after touching a weekly high near 99.35 – 99.15 resistance and is range bound within last week’s price action. Data from the US this week saw the weekly unemployment claims rise more than expected to 284k while the core retail sales disappointed, falling -0.10% for the month against expectations of 0.20% increase. US industrial production was also weak, down -0.40% falling more than the expected -0.20% declines.

  • LMCI m/m 2.9 vs. 2.7
  • NFIB Small business index 95.2 vs. 95.4
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.3 vs. 47.6
  • Weekly unemployment claims 284k vs. 275k
  • Import prices m/m -1.20% vs. -1.40%
  • Core retail sales m/m -0.10% vs. 0.20%
  • Retail sales m/m -0.10% vs. -0.10%
  • PPI m/m -0.20% vs. -0.20%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.10% vs. 0.10%
  • Empire state manufacturing Index -19.4 vs. -4.1
  • US Industrial production -0.40% vs. -0.20%
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