The holiday thin trading saw the markets move sideways than establishing any trends. The Australian Dollar closed the week with gains of 0.24% for the week and emerged as the top commodity risk currency despite lack of any major fundamentals. The Canadian dollar was the second winner with 0.14% gains, tracking Crude Oil prices which were choppy.
The British Pound was the weakest currency losing out -1.28% for the week to the US Dollar. Despite lack of any major fundamentals, the British Pound was considerably weaker and continued to decline across the board. The Swiss Franc was the second weakest currency during the week, losing out -1.24% to the US Dollar. The Euro was also weaker, down -0.81% as the single currency failed to make any major headway and was seen stuck below the 1.10 handle for the most part.
Fundamentals for the Week 04/01 – 08/01
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 04-01-16 | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 52.5 | |
| USD | FOMC Member Mester Speaks | ||||
| 03:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.5 | |
| 03:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 48.9 | 48.6 | |
| 07:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -22.00% | ||
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| 10:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | |
| 10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 49.7 | |
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.9 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | 51.6 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 53 | 53 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.7 | |
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.9B | 4.8B | ||
| GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.50% | 0.60% | ||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 70K | 70K | ||
| 16:30 | CAD | RBC Manufacturing PMI | 48.6 | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.1 | 51.3 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 49.1 | 48.6 | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.70% | 1.00% | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 36.5 | 35.5 | ||
| 05-01-16 | 01:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 33.20% | 32.50% |
| 10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -52.6K | -27.1K | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -7K | -13K | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 56.1 | 55.3 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.00% | 0.90% | ||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.10% | -0.40% | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | RMPI m/m | -2.30% | 0.40% | |
| CAD | IPPI m/m | 0.10% | -0.50% | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | 1.90% | ||
| 06-01-16 | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 48.2 | |
| 03:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 52.3 | 51.2 | |
| 6th-12th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.50% | -0.20% | |
| 10:15 | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 56.9 | 56.7 | |
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 53.8 | 53.4 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 50 | 50 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 55.4 | 55.4 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 55.6 | 55.9 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | PPI m/m | -0.20% | -0.30% | |
| 15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 193K | 217K | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Trade Balance | -2.6B | -2.8B | |
| USD | Trade Balance | -44.0B | -43.9B | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 55.1 | 53.7 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 56 | 55.9 | |
| USD | Factory Orders m/m | -0.20% | 1.50% | ||
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.6M | ||
| 21:00 | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||
| 07-01-16 | 02:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | -2.80% | 3.90% |
| AUD | Trade Balance | -2.98B | -3.31B | ||
| 05:45 | JPY | 30-y Bond Auction | 1.40|3.9 | ||
| 09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | 0.10% | 1.80% | |
| EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.50% | -0.40% | ||
| 10:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 563B | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 11.50% | 11.50% | |
| 11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 48.5 | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 10.70% | 10.70% | |
| EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | -0.10% | ||
| 14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | -13.90% | ||
| 15:25 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 271K | 287K | |
| 17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 56.7 | 63.6 | |
| 08-01-16 | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 50.7 | |
| 02:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.50% | |
| 03:30 | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.70% | 0.70% | |
| 07:00 | JPY | Leading Indicators | 103.90% | 102.90% | |
| 08:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 3.40% | 3.40% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | German Trade Balance | 20.1B | 20.8B | ||
| 09:45 | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | -0.20% | 0.50% | |
| EUR | French Trade Balance | -4.0B | -4.6B | ||
| 10:15 | CHF | CPI m/m | -0.20% | -0.10% | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Trade Balance | -10.5B | -11.8B | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | -3.20% | 9.10% | |
| CAD | Employment Change | 10.4K | -35.7K | ||
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 7.10% | 7.10% | ||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 202K | 211K | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.00% | 5.00% | ||
| 17:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.00% | -0.10% | |
| 22:00 | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 18.7B | 16.0B | |
| 09-01-16 | 03:30 | CNY | CPI y/y | 1.70% | 1.50% |
| CNY | PPI y/y | -5.80% | -5.90% |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: The week ahead will see the building approvals numbers from Australia which is expected to decline -2.80% after an increase of 3.90% previously. Retail sales numbers are also on the tap with expectations of a modest increase of 0.40% against 0.50% growth seen a month before. The Australian dollar has been trending strongly over the past week and a potential upside surprise in the economic data could keep the currency well supported for further gains.
NZD: The week is relatively quiet for the Kiwi dollar, with the GDT price index being the main economic release over the week. The most recent GDT data showed a soft increase of 1.90%. However, despite the lack of fundamentals, the Kiwi has managed to trend strongly across the board and any upside surprises in the GDT price index could see the Kiwi continue to move higher.
JPY: The Japanese Yen is likely to remain on the sidelines over the week with no major economic releases scheduled. On Friday, the average cash earnings data will be of interest with expectations of a 0.70% growth, same as the month before.
China: Data from China this week will be of interest as the manufacturing and services PMI numbers are released. Expectations are for a modest increase to 48.9 on the manufacturing PMI while the services sector is expected to rise 52.3, up from 51.2 previously. Over the weekend, the inflation data is due where it is expected that China’s inflation increased at a pace of 1.70%, up from 1.50% previously. There are also expectations that producer prices index are also expected to show a modest improvement, with -5.8% declines.
GBP: The data from the UK will see the manufacturing, construction and services PMI, all of which will gain some attention. Expectations are for manufacturing PMI to increase to 52.8 from 52.7 previously while construction PMI is expected to rise to 56.1, up from 55.3 previously. The services PMI is however expected to post a soft decline to 55.6, from 55.9 previously. With the British Pound turning out to be the weakest currency last week, a beat on the estimates could push the GBP to recover some of the lost ground.
EUR: The week ahead will be busy for the Single currency with flash CPI estimates and flash PMI numbers being released. Of particular interest will be the Eurozone CPI data which is expected to rise 0.40% on the headline while the core CPI is expected to rise to 1.0%. With inflation staying flat last year, an increase in the inflation data could see the Euro attempt to turn higher as bets on ECB’s QE easing abate.
CAD: The Canadian dollar will see some important data this week with the Ivey PMI numbers being of interest. Expectations are for a decline to 56.7 after PMI data increased unexpectedly to 63.6 previously. Trade balance and building permits data are also due but the main data point during the week will be Friday’s jobs report. The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to stay put at 7.10% while the monthly employment change is expected to see the economy add10.4k jobs.
USD: The US Dollar will see a lot of important economic data during the week. Starting off with the PMI data on Monday, the ADP jobs report is due on Wednesday with expectations of 193k jobs being added to the private sector. Later on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released, which come off the December meeting where the Fed hiked interest rates by 25bps. Expect to see some volatility across the board. Friday will bring the US jobs report with expectations of a steady unemployment rate at 5.0% while the monthly jobs are expected to grow at a pace of 202k.
