Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 11/12, 2015

0 165

AUDUSD (0.72): The Australian Dollar is down -1.70% approximately for the week. The currency initially fell since the start of the week after opening near 0.7334 and continued a strong decline to find support near 0.7188 to reverse some of the gains. AUDUSD rallied back to post a lower high near 0.7314, before easing back lower. The price action this week remains bound within last week’s high and low. Data from Australia this week included the construction index which fell to 50.7 from 52.1 previously. Job advertisements increased 1.30% beating estimates of 0.30%. The home loans data for the month fell -0.5% less than expected -1.0%. The big data for the week was, however, the Australian unemployment rate which fell to 5.8% while the Australian economy added 71.4k jobs.

  • AIG construction index 50.7 vs. 52.1 previously
  • ANZ Job advertisements m/m 1.3% vs. 0.3% previously
  • NAB Business confidence 5 vs. 3 previously
  • Westpac consumer sentiment -0.8% vs. 3.9% previously
  • Home loans m/m -0.5% vs. -1.0%
  • MI Inflation expectations 4.0% vs. 3.5% previously
  • Employment change 71.4k vs. -10.0k
  • Unemployment rate 5.8% vs. 6.0%

EURUSD (1.09): The Euro remained on the front foot this week, up 0.80% at the time of writing. Prices initially touched a 5-week high near 1.1028 before easing back lower. Data this week from Europe included the Eurozone quarterly GDP which remained unchanged at 0.30% while Germany’s CPI fell -0.2% but industrial production increased 0.2%, but less than the estimated 0.8%. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence was also weaker at 15.7 below estimates of 17.2.

  • German industrial production m/m 0.2% vs. 0.8%
  • Eurozone Sentix investor confidence 15.7 vs. 17.2
  • Eurozone revised GDP q/q 0.3% vs. 0.3%
  • German trade balance 20.8bn vs. 19.2bn
  • France CPI m/m -0.2% vs. 0.0%
  • France industrial production m/m 0.5% vs. -0.1%
  • Germany final CPI m/m -0.2% vs. 0.2%
  • ECB TLTRO sales

NZDUSD (0.67): The Kiwi Dollar is down -0.16% after multiple attempts to break above the 0.6755 high. Earlier this week the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25bps and noted that the rate cut was sufficient for the New Zealand inflation to head back into the Central Bank’s target range of 1% – 3%. The markets took this statement to be hawkish leading to the Kiwi surging despite the RBNZ rate cut. Other data from New Zealand this week included the manufacturing sales which grew 4.2% for the quarter while the manufacturing business index rose to 54.7.

  • Manufacturing sales q/q 4.2% vs. 1.0%
  • RBNZ Official cash rate 2.50% vs. 2.75% previously
  • RBNZ Gov. Wheeler speech
  • Business NZ Manufacturing index 54.7 vs. 53.2
  • FPI m/m -0.2% vs. -1.2%

USDJPY (121.1): USDJPY is down -1.52% for the week as the Greenback lost ground to the Yen. Prices were volatile this week as the Greenback opened near the highs of 123.355 Yen before giving up the gains to turn very bearish. Data from Japan this week included the final revised quarterly GDP which increased 0.3% beating estimates of 0.1% and avoiding a technical recession. Other data included the bank lending which increased at a slower pace, rising 2.3% against estimates of 2.5%. Machine tool orders fell -17.9% annualized while the core machinery orders gained 10.7% for the month.

  • Leading indicators 102.9% vs. 102.9%
  • Current account 1.49Tn vs. 1.53tn
  • Final GDP q/q 0.3% vs. 0.1%
  • Bank lending y/y 2.3% vs. 2.5% previously
  • Final GDP price index y/y 1.8% vs. 2.0%
  • Economy watchers sentiment 46.1 vs. 48.6
  • Core machinery orders m/m 10.7% vs. -1.5%
  • Prelim machine tool orders y/y -17.9% vs. -22.9% previously
  • PPI y/y -3.6% vs. -3.8%

USDCAD (1.36): The Canadian Dollar turned weak this week as Oil prices continued to fall strongly. USDCAD is up 2.23% for the week and is trading near a multi-year high of 1.367. Data from Canada this week was limited to housing starts which rose modestly by 212k beating estimates of 200k while building permits rose strongly by 9.1% above estimates of 3.0%. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz gave a speech this week where he talked about negative interest rates and noted that the Central Bank was looking into it as a monetary policy tool. He, however, talked down the idea by noting that the Canadian economy was currently better and that there was no need for negative interest rates at the moment.

  • Housing starts 212k vs. 200k
  • Building permits m/m 9.1% vs. 3.0%
  • BoC Governor Poloz speech
  • NHPI m/m 0.3% vs. 0.1%
  • Capacity utilization rate 82.0% vs. 82.1%

GBPUSD (1.52): The British Pound is up 0.70% at the time of writing with the currency trading near the 1.52 handle. Prices initially fell to post a weekly low near 1.496 where support was formed and the Cable rose strongly since then. Bank of England met this week, but the monetary policy was left unchanged. The BoE came out with a neutral statement with the markets expecting to see the first BoE rate hike only in Q1 of 2017. Meanwhile manufacturing production fell -0.4% for the month while industrial production managed to pick out modest gains rising 0.1% for the month. Construction output was weak, rising 0.2% against estimates of 1.1% while consumer inflation expectations in the UK remained steady at 2.0%.

  • BRC Retail sales monitor y/y -0.2% vs. 0.3%
  • Halifax HPI m/m -0.2% vs. 0.3%
  • Manufacturing production m/m -0.4% vs. -0.1%
  • Industrial production m/m 0.1% vs. 0.0%
  • NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6% vs. 0.5% previously
  • RIC House price balance 49% vs. 47%
  • Trade balance -11.88bn vs. -9.8bn
  • BoE Official bank rate 0.50% vs. 0.50%
  • MPC Bank rate votes 1 – 8
  • Construction output m/m 0.2% vs. 1.1%
  • Consumer inflation expectations 2.0% vs. 2.0% previously

USDCHF (0.98): The Swiss Franc was strong this week as USDCHF is down -1.27% lower. The Swiss Franc continued to strengthen since last week’s sharp declines. USDCHF hit a 6-week low, trading at 0.983 as the Swiss National Bank, which met this week decided to leave the LIBOR rates unchanged at -0.75%. SNB Chief, Jordan noted that inflation was weak and attributed the decline in inflation due to oil prices while calling the Swiss Franc as being overvalued. He said that the Central bank would stand by for further currency intervention if need be.

  • Foreign currency reserves 563bn vs. 552bn
  • Unemployment rate 3.4% vs. 3.4%
  • Libor rate -0.75% vs. -0.75%
  • SNB Press conference

US Dollar Index (97): The US Dollar Index is down -0.80% for the week. The declines came about as many investors began to unwind their Dollar long positions ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision due next week. The Dollar Index continued to fall from the start and touched a weekly low near 97.30 before bouncing back. Data from the US this week included the weekly unemployment claims which rose 282k above estimates of 266k. Retail sales, on the other hand, proved to be better than expected, rising 0.4% on the core but rising only 0.2% on the headline, missing estimates of 0.3%.

  • US LMCI m/m 0.5 vs. 2.2
  • Consumer credit m/m 16.0bn vs. 18.3bn
  • NFIB small business index 94.8 vs. 96.6
  • IBD/TIPP Economic optimism 47.2 vs. 45.2
  • Wholesale inventories m/m -0.1% vs. 0.2%
  • Weekly unemployment claims 282k vs. 266k
  • Import prices m/m -0.4% vs. -0.8%
  • Core retail sales m/m 0.4% vs. 0.3%
  • Retail sales m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3%
  • PPI m/m 0.3% vs. 0.0%
  • Core PPI m/m 0.3% vs. 0.1%
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.