The Swiss Franc was the top performing currency last week, gaining nearly 3.37% for the week. The gains came about largely as the ECB’s monetary policy announcement fell short of market expectations leading to the Euro surging and the Swiss Franc gaining ground as well. The Kiwi was also trending stronger last week gaining 3.34%, mostly on the US Dollar’s weakness. Lack of any major economic data kept the Kiwi well supported.
The Yen was the weakest currency last week followed by the US Dollar. The Greenback’s weakness came about on a stronger Euro which surged nearly 2.0% after the ECB’s announcement. With no further expansion to the monthly bond purchases from the European Central Bank, the markets which were previously oversold on the Euro saw the single currency rebound strongly. Despite a better than expected jobs report and hawkish comments from Janet Yellen over the week, the Greenback eased across the board.
Fundamentals for the Week 07/12 – 11/12
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 07-Dec | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 52.1 | |
| 02:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements m/m | 0.40% | ||
| 07:00 | JPY | Leading Indicators | 102.90% | 101.60% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.80% | -1.10% | |
| 10:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 551B | ||
| 7th-8th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.30% | 1.10% | |
| 11:30 | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | 17.2 | 15.1 | |
| 17:00 | USD | Labor Market Conditions Index m/m | 1.6 | ||
| 22:00 | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 18.3B | 28.9B | |
| 23:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Sales q/q | 0.40% | ||
| 08-Dec | 01:50 | JPY | Current Account | 1.53T | 0.78T |
| JPY | Final GDP q/q | 0.10% | -0.20% | ||
| JPY | Bank Lending y/y | 2.50% | |||
| JPY | Final GDP Price Index y/y | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||
| 02:01 | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | -0.20% | ||
| 02:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 2 | ||
| Tentative | CNY | Trade Balance | 395B | 393B | |
| Tentative | CNY | USD-Denominated Trade Balance | 64.2B | 61.6B | |
| 07:00 | JPY | Economy Watchers Sentiment | 48.6 | 48.2 | |
| All Day | EUR | Italian Bank Holiday | |||
| 11:06 | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||
| 11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | -0.10% | 0.80% | |
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | 0.00% | -0.20% | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Revised GDP q/q | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| All Day | EUR | ECOFIN Meetings | |||
| 13:00 | USD | NFIB Small Business Index | 96.6 | 96.1 | |
| 15:15 | CAD | Housing Starts | 198K | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | -6.70% | ||
| 17:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.60% | ||
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 5.59M | 5.53M | ||
| USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 45.2 | 45.5 | ||
| 19:50 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 09-Dec | 01:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 3.90% | |
| 01:50 | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -1.50% | 7.50% | |
| JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | 3.50% | 3.60% | ||
| 02:30 | AUD | Home Loans m/m | -1.00% | 2.00% | |
| 03:30 | CNY | CPI y/y | 1.40% | 1.30% | |
| CNY | PPI y/y | -5.90% | -5.90% | ||
| 08:00 | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | -22.90% | ||
| 08:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 3.40% | 3.40% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance | 19.2B | 19.4B | |
| 10th-17th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 13.40% | 13.50% | |
| 12:30 | GBP | FPC Meeting Minutes | |||
| 17:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.20% | 0.50% | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.2M | ||
| 22:00 | NZD | Official Cash Rate | 2.50% | 2.75% | |
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | ||||
| NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | ||||
| 22:05 | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | |||
| 10-Dec | 01:50 | JPY | BSI Manufacturing Index | 12.1 | 11 |
| JPY | PPI y/y | -3.80% | -3.80% | ||
| 02:00 | AUD | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.50% | ||
| 02:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | 47% | 49% | |
| 02:30 | AUD | Employment Change | -10.0K | 58.6K | |
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 6.00% | 5.90% | ||
| 08:30 | EUR | French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 09:45 | EUR | French CPI m/m | 0.00% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | -0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| 10:30 | CHF | Libor Rate | -0.75% | -0.75% | |
| CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | ||||
| CHF | SNB Press Conference | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | Trade Balance | -9.8B | -9.4B | |
| 14:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 1-0-8 | 1-0-8 | |
| GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | ||||
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
| GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 375B | 375B | ||
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | NHPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 81.30% | |||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 266K | 269K | ||
| USD | Import Prices m/m | -0.80% | -0.50% | ||
| 20:00 | EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
| 23:30 | NZD | Business NZ Manufacturing Index | 53.3 | ||
| 23:45 | NZD | FPI m/m | -1.20% | ||
| 11-Dec | 09:00 | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| EUR | German WPI m/m | 0.20% | -0.40% | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | 0.20% | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Construction Output m/m | 1.10% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 2.00% | |||
| 12:15 | EUR | Targeted LTRO | 15.5B | ||
| 13:00 | EUR | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | 11.90% | 12.40% | |
| 15:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | ||
| USD | PPI m/m | -0.40% | |||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.10% | |||
| USD | Core PPI m/m | -0.30% | |||
| 17:00 | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 91.3 | ||
| USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.30% | |||
| USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.70% |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: The Australian unemployment rate will be the big event risk for the AUD this coming week. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to tick back to 6.0% after declining to 5.9% a month ago in October. On the monthly employment change, expectations are for a decline of -10k, down from 58.6k jobs added last month. While the expectations are dovish, a surprise could keep the Aussie well supported. However, in the event of a downside surprise, the Aussie could be looking to erase some of the strong gains made during the past few weeks.
CAD: Data from Canada this week is relatively quiet with the exception of a speech from BoC Governor, Poloz who is due to speak on Tuesday, December 8th. The markets will also be looking to the housing starts and building permits numbers, which declined -6.7% last month.
CHF: The SNB takes center stage the coming week with the Libor rate and the monetary policy announcement. Expectations are mixed with a dovish bias and that the SNB could look towards cutting rates steeper into the negative. However, with the ECB falling short of expanding the QE program, the SNB could remain in a wait and watch mode. The recent strengthening of the Swiss Franc is another concern which could be a focus from the SNB this week.
China: Chinese inflation and producer price index numbers are due this week on Wednesday, 9th December. The annual inflation in China is expected to come in at 1.4%, up from 1.3% previously while producer price index is expected to remain weak at -5.9%. A downside surprise could keep the markets on edge however ahead of the Fed’s rate hike decision coming up in a few weeks.
EUR: The week ahead for the Eurozone is busy with various economic data but ones which are most likely to play any major role in the markets. The Eurozone’s revised quarterly GDP numbers will be the main data point to look to with expectations of a 0.3% quarterly expansion, unchanged from the previous quarter. German final CPI numbers are also due for release with expectations of a 0.1% increase in inflation. The ECB’s TLTRO is also due later this week.
GBP: The Bank of England will be in focus in the UK this week as the Central Bank meets. Expectations are flat with no change to the rate hike votes which are expected to remain unchanged at 1 – 8. With inflation staying flat and the third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5%, the BoE could strike a dovish tone in the markets rather than rake up any rate hike expectations. Other data during the week includes the UK industrial and manufacturing production numbers.
JPY: The third quarter final GDP numbers from Japan are due for release on December 8th. Expectations are for a 0.1% revised estimate after the previous reading of -0.2% contraction. BoJ Governor Kuroda is also expected to speak during the week. Besides these two main events, the Yen is likely to remain on the back foot.
NZD: The RBNZ will be meeting this week for its monetary policy preview. Heading into the event, expectations are for the RBNZ to deliver anther 25bps rate cut at this meeting, due on December 9th. With the Fed poised to meet in just under two weeks time, the RBNZ could surprise by staying neutral, which could keep the Kiwi well supported. However, given the strong rally over the past weeks, the RBNZ could strike a dovish tone.
USD: The US Dollar is likely to remain quiet for the most part of the week but momentum is likely to pick up towards Friday. Retail sales and PPI numbers are due with expectations of a 0.3% increase on the headline retail sales and 0.2% increase on the core. The UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are also due over the week.
