Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 20/11, 2015

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AUDUSD (0.72): The Australian Dollar is well poised to close the week with strong gains having rallied 1.54% on a week to date basis at the time of writing. Prices initially dipped lower to the support at 0.708 and bounced off strongly on a second retest to the support. The gains in the Aussie came against a weaker US Dollar. Economic data from Australia this week was mixed as new motor vehicle sales fell -3.6%, down from 5.9% growth seen a month ago. The RBA’s meeting minutes were considered to be neutral with no immediate risks to the economy that would warrant a rate cut. Wage price index remained stable at 0.6%, matching expectations..

  • New Motor Vehicle sales m/m -3.6% vs. 5.9% previously
  • RBA releases monetary policy meeting minutes
  • CB leading index m/m -0.1% vs. -0.4% previously
  • MI leading index m/m 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously
  • Wage price index q/q 0.6% vs. 0.6%

EURUSD (1.06): The Single currency is down -0.51% for the week after the EURUSD attempted to test weekly highs near 1.0755 but failed. The rally was led after the FOMC minutes were released which saw the US Dollar fall on profit taking. At the same time, ECB official’s speeches this week ensured that the dovish market talk kept the pressure on the Euro. The markets expect to see the ECB come out strongly with additional policy measures at the meeting in December.

  • Eurozone final CPI y/y 0.1% vs. 0.0%
  • Eurozone final Core CPI y/y 1.1% vs. 1.0%
  • ECB President Draghi speaks
  • Italy trade balance 2.19bn vs. 2.24bn
  • German ZEW economic sentiment 10.4 vs. 6.7
  • Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment 28.3 vs. 35.2
  • Eurozone current account 29.4bn vs. 18.3bn
  • German PPI m/m -0.4% vs. -0.2%

NZDUSD (0.65): The Kiwi dollar managed to gain some modest ground this week rising 0.60% at the time of writing. The currency initially dipped to new lows near 0.6447 before managing to recover and posting a one week high. There was not much of economic data to go by this week. New Zealand inflation expectations remained steady at 1.9%, while the producer price index on a quarterly basis beat estimates. Global dairy trade remains a concern as the index declined -7.9% declines this week, down from -7.4% decline a week ago.

  • Inflation expectations q/q 1.9% vs. 1.9% previously
  • GDT Price index -7.9% vs. -7.4% previously
  • PPI Input q/q 1.6% vs. 0.1%
  • PPI Output q/q 1.3% vs. 0.2%
  • Credit card spending y/y 7.8% vs. 7.3%

USDJPY (122.7): The Japanese Yen is strong this week after prices initially tested the highs above 123.66 but gave back most of the gains. USDJPY is up a modest 0.09% for the week. Data from Japan this week saw the Bank of Japan keeping monetary policy unchanged and signaled no further easing in store. The neutral BoJ stand came despite the Japanese economy posting a contraction of -0.8% on a quarterly basis. Other data from Japan included the all industries activity which declined -0.2% for the month.

  • Prelim GDP q/q -0.2% vs. -0.1%
  • Prelim GDP price index y/y 2.0% vs. 1.7%
  • Trade balance -0.20tn vs. -0.38tn
  • BoJ monetary policy meeting
  • All industries activity m/m -0.2% vs. 0.2%

USDCAD (1.33): The Canadian dollar is trading stronger this week with USDCAD down -0.18% for the week after the currency tested the highs of 1.3362 before easing back. Data from Canada this week was mixed with manufacturing sales down -1.5% for the month including wholesale sales which fell -0.1%. On the other hand, inflation numbers were strong with the core CPI rising 0.3% and headline inflation up 0.1% matching estimates.

  • Manufacturing sales m/m -1.5% vs. 0.3%
  • Foreign securities purchases 2.53bn vs. 4.12bn
  • Wholesale Sales m/m -0.1% vs. 0.2%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.3% vs. 0.2%
  • Core retail sales m/m -0.5% vs. -0.3%
  • CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.1%
  • Retail sales m/m -0.5% vs. 0.1%

GBPUSD (1.52): The British Pound is looking towards a second week of gains, up 0.10% at the time of writing. Prices touched a weekly high of 1.533 before easing back lower. Consumer inflation numbers posted this week saw the annual headline CPI decline -0.1% while the core CPI increased 1.1%, which saw the British Pound find support. The rally was however short lived as the retail sales for the month fell -0.6% below estimates of -0.4%. Against the Euro, the British Pound was however trading stronger with the Euro down -0.59% on a weekly basis .

  • CPI y/y -0.1% vs. -0.1%
  • PPI Input m/m 0.2% vs. 0.2%
  • RPI y/y 0.7% vs. 0.9%
  • Core CPI y/y 1.1% vs. 1.0%
  • HPI y/y 6.1% vs. 5.4%
  • PPI Output m/m 0.0% vs. -0.1%
  • Retail sales m/m -0.6% vs. -0.4%
  • CBI Industrial order expectations -11 vs. -10
  • Public Sector Net borrowing 7.5bn vs. 5.5bn

USDCHF (1.0): The Swiss Franc continues to remain weak as the Greenback is up 0.70% at the time of writing. Prices touched a new high above 1.0203 this week before the currency eased back lower. There was not much of economic data from Switzerland to go by this week, the only exceptions being the economic expectations which were 0.0, down from 18.3 a month ago.

  • ZEW Economic expectations 0.0 vs. 18.3 previously
  • Trade balance 4.16bn vs. 3.18bn

US Dollar Index (99.2): The US Dollar Index has managed to post a 0.19% gain for the week after prices briefly touched a high near 99.9 earlier in the week before easing back lower. Data from the US this week included the inflation numbers which matched estimates. Headline CPI for the month increased 0.2%, including the Core CPI. The FOMC meeting minutes were however the main event this week as the Fed minutes showed that the December rate hike decision could be nearer than ever supported by data. Weekly jobless claims rose 271k above estimates of 270k while the CB leading index was up 0.6%.

  • Empire state manufacturing index -10.7 vs. -5.3
  • CPI m/m 0.2% vs. 0.2%; Core CPI m/m 0.2% vs. 0.2%
  • Capacity utilization rate 77.5% vs. 77.5%
  • Industrial production m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1%
  • NAHB housing market index 62 vs. 64
  • TIC long term purchases 33.6bn vs. 20.8bn previously
  • FOMC Member Dudley speaks
  • Building permits 1.15mn vs. 1.15mn
  • Housing starts 1.06mn vs. 1.16mn
  • FOMC meeting minutes released
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index 1.9 vs. 0.1
  • Unemployment claims 271k vs. 272k
  • CB leading index m/m 0.6% vs. 0.5%

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