The currency markets managed to settle back after a tumultuous start to the week with the risk aversion being the major theme. However the Yen emerged on tops with gains of 0.72% over the US Dollar. The Canadian dollar also surprisingly posted gains this week led by a sharp rally in Crude oil prices as the weekly crude oil inventories showed a drop in the stockpiles.
The Swiss Franc retreated off the highs this week and ended up losing -1.69% for the week. The Euro also managed to ease back from the highs seen earlier this week and ended up closing the week with -1.77% declines to the Greenback. The Kiwi and the Aussie made up the tail end of the currency markets this week losing -3.39% and -1.98% respectively as a result of concerns about the slowdown from China which could hit the Aussie and the Kiwi markets.
Fundamentals for the Week 31/08 – 04/09
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 31-Aug | 01:45 | NZD | Building Consents m/m | -4.10% | |
| 02:50 | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 0.10% | 1.10% | |
| 03:30 | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.20% | ||
| 04:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | 0.50% | ||
| NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | -15.3 | |||
| 04:30 | AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | -1.90% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.40% | 0.40% | ||
| 08:00 | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | 11.20% | 16.30% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | -2.30% | ||
| 10:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 99.9 | 99.8 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| 12:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.20% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.00% | 1.00% | ||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.20% | -0.10% | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Current Account | -17.2B | -17.5B | |
| 16:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 54.7 | 54.7 | |
| 01-Sep | 01:45 | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | -1.90% | 1.50% |
| 02:30 | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 50.4 | ||
| 02:50 | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | 9.00% | 7.30% | |
| 04:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 50 | |
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | |||
| 04:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 3.00% | -8.20% | |
| AUD | Current Account | -15.9B | -10.7B | ||
| 04:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
| 04:45 | CNY | Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI | 47.2 | 47.1 | |
| CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 53.9 | 53.8 | ||
| 06:45 | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.40|2.8 | ||
| 07:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||
| 09:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -20.20% | ||
| 10:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | |
| 10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 48.7 | |
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 56.2 | 55.3 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 48.6 | 48.6 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -5K | 9K | |
| EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.2 | 53.2 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.4 | |
| EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 12.70% | 12.70% | ||
| EUR | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | 12.50% | 12.40% | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 3.9B | 3.8B | ||
| GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.20% | -0.50% | ||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 68K | 67K | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 11.10% | 11.10% | |
| 15:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.20% | -0.20% | |
| 16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.9 | 52.9 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52.7 | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.80% | 0.10% | ||
| USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 47.3 | 46.9 | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 39.7 | 44 | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | 14.80% | ||
| All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 17.3M | 17.6M | |
| 02-Sep | 02:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 33.20% | 32.80% |
| 04:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | -11.20% | ||
| 04:30 | AUD | GDP q/q | 0.40% | 0.90% | |
| 10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -74.0K | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 57.6 | 57.1 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | PPI m/m | -0.10% | -0.10% | |
| 15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 204K | 185K | |
| 15:30 | USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 2.90% | 1.30% | |
| USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | -0.50% | 0.50% | ||
| 17:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | 0.80% | 1.80% | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -5.5M | ||
| 03-Sep | 02:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 54.1 | |
| 04:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.70% | |
| AUD | Trade Balance | -3.10B | -2.93B | ||
| 10:15 | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 59.3 | 59.7 | |
| 10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 53.1 | 52 | |
| 10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 51.8 | 51.8 | |
| 10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 53.6 | 53.6 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.3 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 57.6 | 57.4 | |
| 12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.60% | -0.60% | |
| 14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 125.40% | ||
| 14:45 | EUR | Minimum Bid Rate | 0.05% | 0.05% | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Trade Balance | -1.4B | -0.5B | |
| EUR | ECB Press Conference | ||||
| USD | Trade Balance | -43.2B | -43.8B | ||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 273K | 271K | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 55.2 | 55.2 | |
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 58.3 | 60.3 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 69B | ||
| 04-Sep | 04:30 | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 2.30% | -2.50% |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | -0.50% | 2.00% | |
| 10:15 | CHF | CPI m/m | -0.20% | -0.60% | |
| 11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 54.2 | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Revised GDP q/q | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| 15:10 | USD | FOMC Member Lacker Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | CAD | Employment Change | 2.0K | 6.6K | |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.80% | 6.80% | ||
| CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | 0.10% | -0.10% | ||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | ||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 220K | 215K | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.20% | 5.30% | ||
| 17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 53.5 | 52.9 |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
RBA Monetary Policy, GDP and Retail sales: The Australian dollar will see a busy calendar with the monthly RBA monetary policy on the agenda. Although the RBA is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged, the tone of the statement could be one to watch for. The quarterly GDP data is also due this week with the median forecasts estimating a slowdown to 0.4% from 0.9% previously and finally the monthly retail sales data is due on Thursday with dovish consensus calling for a 0.4% increase in retail sales for the month.
ECB Press conference & GDP: The ECB meets this week on Thursday and although no major policy decisions are expected, the markets will be watching Mario Draghi to talk about the bank’s QE purchases. Eurozone’s quarterly GDP data is also due this week and is widely expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. Other data includes CPI flash estimates and PMI releases.
UK PMI’s: It is a short week for the British Pound as the markets are closed on Monday due to a Bank holiday. In terms of economic data, the PMI’s are due this week with no other major releases scheduled.
Canada GDP and Jobs: The Canadian economic calendar is busy starting with the monthly GDP print due on Tuesday. Expectations call for the monthly GDP to have bounced back 0.2%, after falling -0.2% previously. Also on the wire will be the monthly jobs report with the median forecasts calling for the Canadian unemployment rate to stay put at 6.8%.
August NFP: The most important data for the US will be this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls which will be the final unemployment data heading into the FOMC September meeting. Expectations call for the US unemployment rate to decline to 5.2% from 5.3% while the average number of jobs is expected to be around 220k. Besides the NFP, Wednesday will see the ADP non farm payrolls and the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI releases during the week.
