The Pound Sterling was the strongest currency last week, gaining over 2% for the week against the Greenback. Boosted by a weaker US Dollar and better than expected improving fundamentals, GBPUSD rallied to post new highs for the year, trading near 1.59 region. The Swiss Franc came in at a close second despite the SNB talking down the currency. The Franc was also boosted by the prevailing uncertainty in the Eurozone on account of Greece.
The Kiwi Dollar continued its decline as the currency weakened further last week on account of a weaker than expected GDP for the quarter. The NZD continued to attract sellers across the board as speculation continues for a second rate cut to be delivered by the RBNZ in the coming months.
Fundamentals for the Week 22 – 26 June
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Expected | Previous |
| 22-Jun | 01:00 | NZD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 117.4 | |
| 01:45 | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | 1.40% | ||
| All Day | CNY | Bank Holiday | |||
| 06:00 | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 7.10% | ||
| 08:00 | JPY | BOJ Monthly Report | |||
| 10:45 | GBP | MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks | |||
| All Day | EUR | Euro Summit | |||
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | |||
| 17:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -6 | -6 | |
| USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.29M | 5.04M | ||
| 23-Jun | 03:00 | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.10% | |
| 04:30 | AUD | HPI q/q | 2.10% | 1.90% | |
| 04:35 | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.9 | |
| 04:45 | CNY | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 49.2 | |
| 10:00 | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.4 | |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 52.5 | 52.8 | ||
| 10:30 | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.1 | |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 52.9 | 53 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52 | 52.2 | |
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.7 | 53.8 | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| 13:00 | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | 3 | -5 | |
| 15:00 | USD | FOMC Member Powell Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.60% | -0.20% | |
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | -0.50% | -1.00% | ||
| 16:00 | USD | HPI m/m | 0.60% | 0.30% | |
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 54 | |
| 17:00 | USD | New Home Sales | 521K | 517K | |
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 1 | 1 | ||
| 24-Jun | 02:50 | JPY | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||
| JPY | SPPI y/y | 0.40% | 0.70% | ||
| 05:00 | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 1.10% | ||
| 09:00 | CHF | UBS Consumption Indicator | 1.25 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 108.2 | 108.5 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | BBA Mortgage Approvals | 43.1K | 42.1K | |
| 15:30 | USD | Final GDP q/q | -0.20% | -0.70% | |
| USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | -0.10% | -0.10% | ||
| 16:00 | CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | |||
| EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -5.2 | -4.9 | ||
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.7M | ||
| 25-Jun | 09:00 | EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| 13:00 | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | 32 | 51 | |
| 15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 271K | 267K | |
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.70% | 0.00% | ||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.60% | 0.40% | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Services PMI | 56.5 | 56.2 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 89B | ||
| 19:10 | CAD | Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks | |||
| 26-Jun | 01:45 | NZD | Trade Balance | -50M | 123M |
| 02:30 | JPY | Household Spending y/y | 3.70% | -1.30% | |
| JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 0.10% | 0.20% | ||
| JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 0.00% | 0.30% | ||
| JPY | Unemployment Rate | 3.30% | 3.30% | ||
| 09:00 | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | 0.20% | 0.60% | |
| 11:00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 5.40% | 5.30% | |
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 0.20% | 0.00% | ||
| 17:00 | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 94.6 | 94.6 | |
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.70% | |||
| 17:15 | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
Greece Crisis: With Greek Central bank receiving additional liquidity from the ECB last week, the Eurogroup members confirmed that they would convene a meeting on Monday in a last ditch efforts to reach a deal with Greece. The Euro is likely to be susceptible to the news flows the coming week. Besides the geo-political risks, economic flows from Eurozone show Flash services and manufacturing PMI’s on the tap with expectations showing a broad growth across the region.
BoE Member Speeches: The Pound Sterling heads into a slow week with BoE Governor Carney and MPC Member Cunliffe scheduled to give their speeches. Previously Carney had been vocal about the Pound Sterling’s appreciation in light of lower inflation readings and we could potentially expect to see some kind of market moving speeches this week..
Japan Economic Flows: With the BoJ leaving policy unchanged, the week ahead sees mostly some second tier data for the Yen, which is unlikely to bring any major changes to the currency. However ongoing geo-political risks out of Eurozone are likely to keep the Yen supported.
Busy week for the USD: The markets see another busy week for the US Dollar with most important, PCE data, the Fed’s preferred mode of gauging inflation on the tap. As of now, expectations are for the Core PCE to remain unchanged at 0.1%. A better than expected print is likely to keep the US Dollar well supported while a miss on the estimates could bring a bearish scenario. Other major economic data for the week includes the final first quarter GDP print as well, which is expected to remain unchanged.
