The British Pound was the strongest performing currency this week followed by the Japanese Yen coming in at a close second, gaining 1.81% for the week. The Yen, which was previously weaker across the board, got a boost from BoJ’s Kuroda’s comments last week which put a halt to its recent weakness. The Euro, single currency was largely drifting but managed to gain 1.38% despite the Greece debt negotiations showing no progress.
The Kiwi Dollar simply collapsed last week as the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25bps, bringing its benchmark overnight cash rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. The Kiwi continues to remain under pressure with speculation that another rate cut is very likely this year. Economic data also points to the fact that the period of higher interest rates looks to have, for the time being come to an end.
Fundamentals for the Week 15 – 19 June
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Expected | Previous |
| 15-Jun | 02:01 | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | -0.10% | |
| 10:00 | EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
| 10:15 | CHF | PPI m/m | 0.10% | -2.10% | |
| CHF | Retail Sales y/y | -2.20% | -2.80% | ||
| 10:30 | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | |||
| 12:00 | EUR | Trade Balance | 20.3B | 19.7B | |
| 15:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | -1.30% | 2.90% | |
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 5.8 | 3.1 | ||
| 16:00 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
| 16:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 78.30% | 78.20% | |
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.20% | -0.30% | ||
| 17:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 56 | 54 | |
| 23:00 | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 17.6B | ||
| 16-Jun | 00:55 | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | ||
| 04:30 | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| AUD | New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m | -1.50% | |||
| 08:45 | CHF | SECO Economic Forecasts | |||
| 09:00 | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 11:30 | GBP | CPI y/y | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | 0.70% | 0.40% | ||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 1.10% | 0.90% | ||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.00% | 0.80% | ||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 10.20% | 9.60% | ||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| Tentative | EUR | European Court of Justice Ruling | |||
| 12:00 | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 37.5 | 41.9 | |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 60.3 | 61.2 | ||
| EUR | Employment Change q/q | 0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | 22.47B | ||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.11M | 1.14M | ||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.10M | 1.14M | ||
| 16:30 | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.20% | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -4.30% | ||
| 17-Jun | 01:45 | NZD | Current Account | 0.23B | -3.19B |
| 02:50 | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.17T | -0.21T | |
| 03:30 | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | 0.10% | ||
| 17th-19th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | 10.40% | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 3.27B | 4.06B | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 2.50% | 1.90% | |
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | -12.5K | -6.5K | ||
| GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 5.50% | 5.50% | ||
| 12:00 | CHF | ZEW Economic Expectations | -0.1 | ||
| EUR | Final CPI y/y | 0.30% | 0.30% | ||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.90% | 0.90% | ||
| Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | 0.65|1.3 | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.30% | 0.80% | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -6.8M | ||
| 21:00 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |||
| USD | FOMC Statement | ||||
| USD | Federal Funds Rate | <0.25% | <0.25% | ||
| 21:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||
| 18-Jun | 01:45 | NZD | GDP q/q | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 02:05 | GBP | BOE Quarterly Bulletin | |||
| 04:30 | AUD | RBA Bulletin | |||
| 07:30 | CHF | SNB Financial Stability Report | |||
| 09:00 | CHF | Trade Balance | 2.72B | 2.86B | |
| 10:30 | CHF | Libor Rate | -0.75% | -0.75% | |
| CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | ||||
| CHF | SNB Press Conference | ||||
| 11:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
| 11:30 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | 0.00% | 1.20% | |
| 12:15 | EUR | Targeted LTRO | 97.8B | ||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 1.88|3.0 | ||
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | |||
| 15:30 | USD | CPI m/m | 0.50% | 0.10% | |
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 278K | 279K | ||
| USD | Current Account | -116B | -113B | ||
| 17:00 | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.1 | 6.7 | |
| USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.40% | 0.70% | ||
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B | ||
| 19-Jun | Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | ||
| 07:30 | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | 0.30% | -1.30% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | German PPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||
| 11:00 | EUR | Current Account | 18.1B | 18.6B | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 10.2B | 6.0B | |
| All Day | EUR | ECOFIN Meetings | |||
| 15:30 | CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.30% | 0.50% | ||
| CAD | CPI m/m | 0.40% | -0.10% | ||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.60% | 0.70% |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
Australia RBA Meeting minutes: The RBA will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes of its previously concluded monetary policy where the RBA left interest rates unchanged. The Aussie rallied on the news as the RBA left policy on hold. In this aspect, traders will be looking to the minutes for any clues on the RBA’s future course of action regarding interest rates..
Busy week for CAD: The Canadian dollar see’s a relatively data heavy week with various important economic releases including the monthly CPI data, retail sales and manufacturing sales figures. Recent economic data from Canada has started to show signs of improvement, especially last week’s housing market data and also a better than expected jobs report. In this context, traders will be expecting to see another week of positive data from Canada, which could help support the CAD’s recent strengthening.
SNB Monetary Policy: The Swiss National Bank meets this week for its monetary policy preview, which is likely to see a bit of volatility in the Swiss Franc. While there are no changes expected to the Swiss Libor rate, the tone of the SNB will play an important role going forward.
TLTRO, ECJ Ruling and Draghi: The Eurozone economic calendar also sees a busy week ahead with the ECB President, Draghi due to deliver a speech, testifying on the monetary policy to the European Parliament. The ECJ is also expected to give its verdict on the ECB’s OMT program (a mini QE program). Later in the week, the ECB will also be announcing the TLTRO auction details, all of which could bring significant volatility to the single currency.
