Weekly Forex Forecast: 15 – 19 June

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The British Pound was the strongest performing currency this week followed by the Japanese Yen coming in at a close second, gaining 1.81% for the week. The Yen, which was previously weaker across the board, got a boost from BoJ’s Kuroda’s comments last week which put a halt to its recent weakness. The Euro, single currency was largely drifting but managed to gain 1.38% despite the Greece debt negotiations showing no progress.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 12/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 12/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Kiwi Dollar simply collapsed last week as the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25bps, bringing its benchmark overnight cash rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. The Kiwi continues to remain under pressure with speculation that another rate cut is very likely this year. Economic data also points to the fact that the period of higher interest rates looks to have, for the time being come to an end.

Fundamentals for the Week 15 – 19 June

Date Time Currency Detail Expected Previous
15-Jun 02:01 GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -0.10%
10:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
10:15 CHF PPI m/m 0.10% -2.10%
CHF Retail Sales y/y -2.20% -2.80%
10:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
12:00 EUR Trade Balance 20.3B 19.7B
15:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.30% 2.90%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.8 3.1
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
16:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.30% 78.20%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.30%
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 56 54
23:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 17.6B
16-Jun 00:55 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
04:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -1.50%
08:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
09:00 EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
11:30 GBP CPI y/y 0.10% -0.10%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.70% 0.40%
GBP RPI y/y 1.10% 0.90%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.00% 0.80%
GBP HPI y/y 10.20% 9.60%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.10% 0.10%
Tentative EUR European Court of Justice Ruling
12:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 37.5 41.9
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 60.3 61.2
EUR Employment Change q/q 0.10% 0.10%
15:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 22.47B
USD Building Permits 1.11M 1.14M
USD Housing Starts 1.10M 1.14M
16:30 GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.20%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -4.30%
17-Jun 01:45 NZD Current Account 0.23B -3.19B
02:50 JPY Trade Balance -0.17T -0.21T
03:30 AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.10%
17th-19th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 10.40%
11:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.27B 4.06B
11:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.50% 1.90%
GBP Claimant Count Change -12.5K -6.5K
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Unemployment Rate 5.50% 5.50%
12:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -0.1
EUR Final CPI y/y 0.30% 0.30%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.90% 0.90%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.65|1.3
15:30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.30% 0.80%
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -6.8M
21:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
21:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
18-Jun 01:45 NZD GDP q/q 0.60% 0.80%
02:05 GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
04:30 AUD RBA Bulletin
07:30 CHF SNB Financial Stability Report
09:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.72B 2.86B
10:30 CHF Libor Rate -0.75% -0.75%
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHF SNB Press Conference
11:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
11:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.00% 1.20%
12:15 EUR Targeted LTRO 97.8B
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.88|3.0
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 USD CPI m/m 0.50% 0.10%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.30%
USD Unemployment Claims 278K 279K
USD Current Account -116B -113B
17:00 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.1 6.7
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.40% 0.70%
17:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B
19-Jun Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
07:30 JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.30% -1.30%
09:00 EUR German PPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
11:00 EUR Current Account 18.1B 18.6B
11:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.2B 6.0B
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
15:30 CAD Core CPI m/m 0.30% 0.10%
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.50%
CAD CPI m/m 0.40% -0.10%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.60% 0.70%


Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Australia RBA Meeting minutes: The RBA will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes of its previously concluded monetary policy where the RBA left interest rates unchanged. The Aussie rallied on the news as the RBA left policy on hold. In this aspect, traders will be looking to the minutes for any clues on the RBA’s future course of action regarding interest rates..

Busy week for CAD: The Canadian dollar see’s a relatively data heavy week with various important economic releases including the monthly CPI data, retail sales and manufacturing sales figures. Recent economic data from Canada has started to show signs of improvement, especially last week’s housing market data and also a better than expected jobs report. In this context, traders will be expecting to see another week of positive data from Canada, which could help support the CAD’s recent strengthening.

SNB Monetary Policy: The Swiss National Bank meets this week for its monetary policy preview, which is likely to see a bit of volatility in the Swiss Franc. While there are no changes expected to the Swiss Libor rate, the tone of the SNB will play an important role going forward.

TLTRO, ECJ Ruling and Draghi: The Eurozone economic calendar also sees a busy week ahead with the ECB President, Draghi due to deliver a speech, testifying on the monetary policy to the European Parliament. The ECJ is also expected to give its verdict on the ECB’s OMT program (a mini QE program). Later in the week, the ECB will also be announcing the TLTRO auction details, all of which could bring significant volatility to the single currency.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.