Weekly Forex Forecast: 01 – 05 June

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The New Zealand Dollar turned out to be the weakest performing currency pair for the week, losing close to -2.7% for the week, followed by the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar managed to turn stronger for the week in what looks like a completion to the recent correction.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 29/05/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 29/05/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Swiss Franc however turned out to be the best performing currency for the week, rising 0.28%. Despite a weak start at the beginning of the week, the Euro managed to trim its losses to close the week for -0.16% loss.

Fundamentals for the Week 01 – 05 June

Date Time Currency Detail Expected Previous
01-Jun 02:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 48
02:50 JPY Capital Spending q/y -0.10% 2.80%
03:30 AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.30%
04:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.1
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4
04:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m -1.70% 2.80%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 0.10% -0.20%
04:35 JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 50.9 50.9
04:45 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.1
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.00% 0.00%
09:30 AUD Commodity Prices y/y -20.50%
10:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.2
10:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI 47.2 47.9
10:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.8
10:50 EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 49.3 49.3
10:55 EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.4
11:00 EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.3
11:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.7 51.9
15:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.20% 0.10%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.20% 0.40%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.30% 0.00%
16:30 USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
16:45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.8
17:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.5
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.70% -0.60%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 43 40.5
02-Jun 01:45 NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 1.60% -1.90%
02:50 JPY Monetary Base y/y 34.30% 35.20%
04:30 AUD Current Account -10.9B -9.6B
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.40% 0.00%
06:45 JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.43|2.2
07:30 AUD Cash Rate 2.00% 2.00%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
10:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -115.5K -118.9K
10:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -10K -8K
11:30 GBP Construction PMI 55.1 54.2
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 2.3B 3.1B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.40% 0.30%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 64K 61K
12:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.10% 0.00%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.70% 0.60%
EUR PPI m/m 0.10% 0.20%
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.88|1.5
17:00 USD Factory Orders m/m 0.00% 2.10%
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.8 49.7
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -2.20%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 16.5M
03-Jun 02:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.90%
02:30 AUD AIG Services Index 49.7
04:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -7.40%
04:30 AUD GDP q/q 0.60% 0.50%
04:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI 53.3 52.9
09:00 GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.30% 1.00%
10:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI 59.5 60.3
10:45 EUR Italian Services PMI 52.7 53.1
10:50 EUR French Final Services PMI 51.6 51.6
10:55 EUR German Final Services PMI 52.9 52.9
11:00 EUR Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 13.00%
EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 13.00%
11:30 GBP Services PMI 59.2 59.5
12:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.60% -0.80%
EUR Unemployment Rate 11.20% 11.30%
14:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.05% 0.05%
15:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 169K
15:30 CAD Trade Balance -2.0B -3.0B
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Trade Balance -44.2B -51.4B
16:45 USD Final Services PMI 56.5 56.4
17:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.8
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M
21:00 USD Beige Book
04-Jun 04:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.30%
AUD Trade Balance -2.11B -1.32B
06:45 JPY 30-y Bond Auction 1.51|2.7
11:10 EUR Retail PMI 49.5
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.98|1.7
14:00 GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
14:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 52.80%
15:30 USD Unemployment Claims 277K 282K
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -2.80% -1.90%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 5.80% 5.00%
17:00 CAD Ivey PMI 58.2
17:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 112B
19:00 USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
05-Jun 02:30 AUD AIG Construction Index 47
08:00 JPY Leading Indicators 107.30% 106.00%
09:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.60% 0.90%
09:45 EUR French Trade Balance -4.0B -4.6B
10:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 521.9B
5th-9th GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.20% 1.60%
11:30 GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 1.90%
12:00 EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.40% 0.40%
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings
15:30 CAD Employment Change 10.2K -19.7K
CAD Unemployment Rate 6.80% 6.80%
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.20% -0.10%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 226K 223K
USD Unemployment Rate 5.40% 5.40%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.10%
19:30 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
22:00 USD Consumer Credit m/m 16.5B 20.5B

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Australia Q1 GDP: This week will see the first quarter GDP results for Australia. Expectations are for the Australian GDP to rise modestly to 0.6% for the quarter, up from 0.5% previously. With the RBA lowering interest rates to 2%, any hiccups in the GDP data could see another wave of interest rate cut speculation from the RBA. Another factor that could weigh into the GDP data is the relatively stronger currency exchange rate of the Aussie during the first quarter, which could have an impact on the GDP growth.

Canada Unemployment Rate: Canada’s labour market data will be released on Friday and expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.8%, while expecting a modest pickup in the unemployment change. With the BoC holding rates steady and with the most recent GDP data disappointing, the unemployment rate will be an important event to watch out for.

ECB Press Conference: With the previous ECB meeting turning out to be a non-event the markets look forward to this month’s ECB meeting. Although nothing much is likely to be said at this meeting, the focus continues to remain on Greece as the country prepares for its next big debt obligation from the IMF. Later in the week, the Eurozone quarterly GDP data is also expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%

UK PMI’s and Bank Rate: Besides the monthly manufacturing, services and construction PMI data, the BoE’s interest rate decision is also due this week. Markets will be closely monitoring the language of the Central Bank for any clues on the forward guidance for interest rate hikes.

Busy week for the US Dollar: The week ahead promises to be a busy week for the Greenback with PMI data alongside the monthly labour market data due during the week. The markets will be expecting to see a strong NFP print while expecting the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4%. The big question being whether economic data this week will support the US Dollar?

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