Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Wrap Up: May 4 – 8, 2015

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AUDUSD (0.79): The Australian Dollar was mostly range bound this week against the Greenback, trading within last week’s range of 0.8075 and 0.7812. Economic data this week for the Aussie included the RBA monetary policy statement which saw the Central Bank cut rates to record lows of 2% in a widely anticipated move. Unemployment data released a day later did not impress the markets with unemployment rate ticking higher to 6.2% but within expectations. Other economic data such as the retail sales and construction index were tipped to the downside.

  • MI Inflation gauge m/m 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously
  • Building approvals m/m 2.8% vs. -1.7%
  • ANZ job advertisements m/m 2.3% vs. -1.3%
  • AIG services index 49.7 vs. 50.2 previously
  • RBA Cash rate 2% from 2.25%
  • HIA New home sales m/m 4.4% vs. 1.1% previously
  • Retail sales m/m 0.3% vs. 0.4%
  • Employment change -2.9k vs. 4.5k
  • Unemployment rate m/m 6.2% vs. 6.2%

EURUSD (1.125): The Euro was one of the star performers this week as the currency continued to main its hold in the rally gaining across the board. While manufacturing PMI was mixed, services PMI were better than expected across the board. Economic data by and large continues to remain upbeat, a sign that the ECB’s QE was doing its bit. However, the currency remains susceptible to the risks with the ongoing Greece debt negotiations which continue to remain elusive with no clear outcome so far. Ahead of the US NFP release, the Euro started to ease from its previous highs above 1.125 and looks to be under pressure into the weekend.

  • Spain manufacturing PMI 54.2 vs. 54.6; services PMI 60.3 vs. 57.4
  • Italy manufacturing PMI 53.8 vs. 53.4; services PMI 53.1 vs. 52.1
  • Germany manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. 51.9; services PMI 54 vs. 54.4
  • France manufacturing PMI 48 vs. 48.4; services PMI 51.4 vs. 50.8
  • Sentix investor confidence 19.6 vs. 19.5
  • Eurozone final manufacturing PMI 52 vs. 51.9; Services PMI 54.1 vs. 53.7
  • Retail sales m/m -0.8% vs. -0.4%
  • German factory orders m/m 0.9% vs. 1.6%
  • German industrial production m/m -0.5% vs. 0.4%

NZDUSD (0.745): The Kiwi dollar continued its decline this week after unemployment data failed to live up to the expectations. The Kiwi started its fall from last week’s RBNZ monetary policy meeting. Despite a weaker Greenback for the most of this week, the Kiwi remained under pressure and declined to weekly lows of 0.742

  • ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -7.4% vs. 4.6% previously
  • GDT Price Index -3.5% vs. -3.6% previously
  • Employment change q/q 0.7% vs. 0.8%
  • Unemployment rate 5.8% vs. 5.5%
  • Labor cost index q/q 0.3% vs. 0.4%

USDJPY (119.8): The Japanese Yen was on the back foot this week with the markets closed for the first half of the week. The Yen was trading off the broader technical trading and remained mixed across the board. The Yen lost ground to stronger currencies such as the Euro and the British Pound while the Kiwi was no match to the Yen as NZDJPY continued to drift lower. USDJPY for the most part was trading within a tight range.

USDCAD (1.21): The Canadian Dollar continued to surprise as the currency managed to hold its ground against the Greenback. Economic data from Canada was largely mixed but the important data such as the Ivey PMI, building permits and unemployment rate all managed to beat estimates. With the Greenback easing from its highs, the Canadian Dollar managed to gain considerable ground heading into this week’s close.

  • Trade Balance -3.0bn vs. -0.8bn
  • Ivey PMI 58.2 vs. 50.1
  • Building permits m/m 11.6% vs. 2.1%
  • Housing starts 182k vs. 187k
  • Employment change-19.7k vs. –4.5k
  • Unemployment rate 6.8% vs. 6.9%

GBPUSD (1.54): The British Pound opened the week on an uncertain note heading into the election uncertainty. The currency managed to stall its declines from last Friday and was seen largely trading in a tight range. As the elections got underway, exit polls started pointing to a clear majority to the Conservatives party with David Cameron poised to be re-elected. The news saw the British Pound spike overnight by close to 100 pips trading back near the highs of 1.54. Heading into the weekly close, the British Pound looks likely to remain well supported above 1.53

  • Construction PMMI 54.2 vs. 57.6
  • BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.9% vs. -2.1% previously
  • Halifax HPI m/m 1.6% vs. 0.3%

US Dollar Index (94.5): The Greenback was trading mixed this week but remained weaker across the board. This week saw quite a few important releases with most of the data continuing to remain weak. The main highlights from the data this week included a surge in the trade deficit as imports grew over the month, leading economists cutting down the first quarter GDP into negative territory. On the jobs front, the ADP private payrolls missed estimates, while the NFP numbers for April managed to meet estimates. Unemployment rate also improved to 5.4%. However the data was overshadowed by the fact that March jobs were further revised downwards to 85k.

  • Factory Orders m/m 2.1% vs. 2.1%
  • Trade Balance -51.4bn vs. -41.2bn
  • Final Services PMI 57.4 vs. 57.8
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.8 vs. 56.2
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 169k vs. 199k
  • Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 5% vs. 4.5%
  • Unemployment Claims 265k vs. 277k
  • Non-Farm Employment Change 223k vs. 228k
  • Unemployment Rate 5.4% vs. 5.4%
  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs. 0.2%
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