Weekly Forex Wrap Up: May 11 – 15, 2015

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AUDUSD (0.801): The Australian Dollar continued its roller coaster ride as the currency touched a new high this week, briefly spiking above 0.8149. The currency however failed to keep up its bullish momentum and started to push lower. However, the Australian Dollar remains well supported as the currency was seen trading near last week’s high of 0.8015 – 0.79820. Fundamentally, there wasn’t much of marking moving events this week but whatever data was on the tap, managed to come in line with estimates.

  • NAB Business confidence 3 vs. 3 previously
  • Home loans m/m 1.6% vs. 1.1%
  • Wage price index q/q 0.5% vs. 0.6%

EURUSD (1.1337): EURUSD continued its rally this week as well as the currency touched a fresh high to 1.1421, but failed to hold on to the gains. At the time of writing, the EURUSD was trading near 1.13327, just near previous week’s high. The currency was clearly an outperformer for this week across the board despite the risks from the Greece debt negotiations. Economic data from the Eurozone also started to look up broadly. This week saw the release of GDP and CPIP data from various economies across the Eurozone.

  • French Prelim GDP q/q 0.6% vs. 0.4%
  • German Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% vs. 0.5%
  • German Final CPI m/m 0.0% vs. -0.1%
  • French CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.2%
  • Italian Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% vs. 0.2%
  • Eurozone Flash GDP q/q 0.4% vs. 0.5%
  • Eurozone Industrial Production m/m -0.3% vs. 0.1%

NZDUSD (0.7435): The Kiwi saw some wild swings this week as the currency declined lower to test new lows at 0.73365. The Kiwi Dollar got some boost as retail sales data for the quarter was better than expected. The data managed to push the Kiwi higher to weekly highs of 0.7548 but the currency started to decline as news broke that Fonterra, the New Zealand diary giant cut its supply forecasts. Given that Fonterra is New Zealand’s largest exporter, the cut in forecasts pulled down the Kiwi dollar considerably.

  • REINZ HPI m/m 0.5% vs. 6.7% previously
  • FPI m/m -0.3% vs. 0.1%
  • Business NZ manufacturing index 51.8 vs. 54.6
  • Retail sales q/q 2.7% vs. 1.6%; core retail sales 2.9% vs. 1.5%

USDJPY (119.85): The Yen is practically where it was last week at 119.85 at the time of writing. The USDJPY failed to post fresh highs this week stalling near 120.205, below last week’s high at 120.455 and plummeted to post a weekly low to 118.95 for a brief spike before rising back. There was not much of data from Japan so the USDJPY was trading mostly based off technical levels and the broader USD weakness. Earlier today, BoJ Governor Kuroda gave a speech marking two years of the QQE launch. The BoJ head was optimistic that the bank would meet its inflation target of 2%. There was no further comment on future easing.

  • Leading indicators 105.5% vs. 105.5%
  • Bank lending y/y 2.6% vs. 2.6% previously
  • Economy watchers sentiment 53.6 vs. 52.1
  • PPi y/y -2.1% vs. -2.1%
  • Consumer confidence 41.5 vs. 41.9

USDCAD (1.204): There were not much of fundamentals for the early part of the week from Canada and the USDCAD noticeably declined, posting new weekly lows at 1.1938. At the time of writing, the Loonie was seen growing weaker as the US Dollar was rising to 1.2044 levels as the Greenback is seen making attempts to retrace some of its recent declines. Data from Canada this week included the manufacturing sales and the house price index which was broadly mixed.

  • NHPI m/m 0.0% vs. 0.2%
  • Manufacturing sales m/m 2.9% vs. 1.2%
  • Foreign securities purchases 22.47bn vs. 7.23bn

GBPUSD (1.571): The British Pound continued to push higher as the currency posted a new high to 1.5787 this week before easing lower. The Pound Sterling remains well supported despite a neutral outlook by BoE Governor Mark Carney during the inflation report hearing. The UK labor market data was also upbeat as actual data managed to meet estimates with unemployment rate improving to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The boost came from a pickup in the average earnings index that increased 1.9%, above 1.6%. The BoE met for its monetary policy meeting and left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%

  • BoE Official Bank rate, unchanged at 0.5%
  • BRC retail sales monitor y/y -2.4% vs. 3.2% previously
  • Manufacturing production m/m 0.4% vs. 0.3%
  • Industrial production m/m 0.5% vs. 0.0%
  • NIESR GDP estimate 0.4% vs. 0.3% previously
  • Average earnings index 3m/y 1.9% vs. 1.7%
  • Claimant count change -12.6k vs. -20.5k
  • Unemployment rate 5.5% vs. 5.5%
  • RICS House price balance 33% vs. 22%
  • Construction output m/m 3.9% vs. 4.1%

US Dollar Index (94): The Greenback was pulled lower this week as investors continued to selloff the US Dollar on weaker economic data. The Dollar Index managed to form a bottom for now, posting a weekly low below 93.45 and is currently staging a small rally early Friday. The biggest economic disappointment this week was the retail sales which missed estimates. The Producer price index was also weaker than expected which was one of the reasons for the continued selloff in the Greenback

  • NFIB small business index 96.9 vs. 96.1
  • JOLTS job openings 4.99mn vs. 5.16mn
  • Core retail sales m/m 0.1% vs. 0.4%; retail sales m/m 0.0% vs. 0.3%
  • Import prices m/m -0.3% vs. 0.3%
  • PPI m/m -0.4% vs. 0.1%; Core PPI m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1%
  • Unemployment claims 264k vs. 272k
  • Empire state manufacturing index 3.1 vs. 5.1


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