The Euro, single currency managed to take it top spot once again after slipping the week before, gaining close to 2% for the week. The US Dollar continues to remain weak along with the Kiwi Dollar. However, the New Zealand Dollar managed to shed some of the declines from previous week to stabilize at better levels. Economic data continues to remain mixed and broadly weaker as far as the US Economy is concerned and this has led into most of the other currencies gaining ground against the Greenback.
Last week continued to remain a mixed bag for the Kiwi dollar. While the currency was supported by better than expected retail sales data, news about Fonterra, the country’s largest dairy exporter, cutting its forecasts weighed in on the Kiwi dollar, and to some extent on the Australian dollar as well.
Fundamentals for the Week 18 – 22 May
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 18-May | 02:01 | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | 1.60% | |
| 02:30 | AUD | RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks | |||
| 02:50 | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | 1.70% | -0.40% | |
| 04:30 | AUD | New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m | 0.50% | ||
| 07:30 | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | -0.30% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | -0.50% | 0.30% | ||
| 09:00 | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||
| 10:15 | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | -2.00% | -2.70% | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 2.47B | 3.54B | |
| 13:00 | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |||
| 17:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 57 | 56 | |
| 19-May | 01:45 | NZD | PPI Input q/q | -0.60% | -0.40% |
| NZD | PPI Output q/q | 0.10% | -0.10% | ||
| 03:00 | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.50% | ||
| 04:30 | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 06:00 | NZD | Inflation Expectations q/q | 1.80% | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | CPI y/y | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | 0.80% | 0.30% | ||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 0.90% | 0.90% | ||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.00% | 1.00% | ||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 7.70% | 7.20% | ||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 48.9 | 53.3 | |
| EUR | Final CPI y/y | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 62.4 | 64.8 | ||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.60% | 0.60% | ||
| EUR | Trade Balance | 22.9B | 22.0B | ||
| 15:30 | USD | Building Permits | 1.06M | 1.04M | |
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.02M | 0.93M | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -3.50% | ||
| 18:45 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 19:00 | CHF | Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks | |||
| 20-May | 02:15 | AUD | RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks | ||
| 02:50 | JPY | Prelim GDP q/q | 0.40% | 0.40% | |
| JPY | Prelim GDP Price Index y/y | 3.60% | 2.40% | ||
| 03:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | -3.20% | ||
| 09:00 | EUR | German PPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 10:00 | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||
| 11:30 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | |
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
| 12:00 | CHF | ZEW Economic Expectations | -23.2 | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.30% | -0.40% | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.2M | ||
| 21:00 | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||
| 21-May | 01:45 | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -3.60% | |
| 01:50 | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks | |||
| 04:00 | AUD | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.40% | ||
| 04:35 | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 49.9 | |
| 04:45 | CNY | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 48.9 | |
| 05:00 | NZD | Annual Budget Release | |||
| 06:00 | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 5.20% | ||
| 07:30 | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | -0.40% | 0.10% | |
| 10:00 | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 48.6 | 48 | |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 52 | 51.4 | ||
| 10:30 | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 52.1 | |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 53.9 | 54 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.8 | 52 | |
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.9 | 54.1 | ||
| EUR | Current Account | 24.3B | 26.4B | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | -0.50% | |
| 13:00 | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | 3 | 1 | |
| 14:30 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 267K | 264K | |
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 54.1 | |
| 17:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -5 | -5 | |
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.3 | 7.5 | ||
| USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.23M | 5.19M | ||
| USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.30% | 0.20% | ||
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B | ||
| 20:30 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | ||||
| 22-May | 02:00 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | ||
| 05:00 | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.20% | ||
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||
| 09:00 | EUR | German Final GDP q/q | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||
| 11:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 108.3 | 108.6 | |
| EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 7.9B | 6.7B | |
| 12:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | -0.20% | |
| 12:45 | GBP | MPC Member Shafik Speaks | |||
| 14:00 | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.60% | |
| CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.70% | 2.00% | ||
| CAD | CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.70% | ||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.50% | 1.70% | ||
| USD | CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.20% | ||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | ||
| 16:30 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
| GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | ||||
| JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
RBA Monetary policy minutes: The minutes of the RBA’s meeting concluded earlier this month is due to be released on 19th May. The markets will get a glimpse into the discussions that led to the Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates. While the Aussie reversed its losses and turned bullish after the 25bps rate cut, the meeting minutes are likely to offer clues into the future course of action by the Australian Central Bank.
Canada Retail sales and CPI: Canada has a busy scheduled from Tuesday next week with retail sales and CPI data, besides wholesale sales due for release. Expectations are for the core CPI as well as the headline to ease, but given that Oil prices have been largely stable for the most part, there could be an upside surprise.
Busy week for Euro: This week has a lot of economic data from Europe including flash manufacturing and services PMI along with the Eurozone final core CPI. So far economic data from Europe has been relatively positive and if data continues to support this view, the Euro could continue to post gains.
UK Inflation data: After last week, Mark Carney in the BoE’s inflation report hearing noted that it would take a while for inflation to reach the bank’s 2% target, the markets will be looking closely at the CPI numbers from the UK due on 19th May. Expectations are for the headline CPI to remain flat while the Core CPI is also expected to remain unchanged at 1%. The BoE will also release its meeting minutes this week followed by the retail sales data for April.
Japan GDP: With the BoJ opting to buy more time before deciding to expand on its monetary stimulus package, the week ahead will see the preliminary GDP numbers being posted. It is expected that GDP grew by 0.4%, same as the previous quarter. The BoJ in recent times was optimistic that inflation would reach the bank’s target sooner than later. Also on tap is the BoJ’s monetary policy statement and press conference.
US Housing data, FOMC on tap: The first part of the week will see the building permits and housing starts data besides the FOMC meeting minutes due on 20th May, although it is unlikely to see even a hawkish report help turn the sentiment around in the US Dollar. The only other major market moving events this week is the CPI data due on Friday with expectations that the CPI for the month of April eased to 0.1% and unchanged on the core at 0.2%
